http://hdl.handle.net/1957/10900 Research findings from faculty, staff, and students in Forest Engineering, Resources and Management. 2013-05-24T21:26:30Z http://hdl.handle.net/1957/38697 A Comparison of the Spatial Linear Model to Nearest Neighbor (k-NN) Methods for Forestry Applications Ver Hoef, Jay M.; Temesgen, Hailemariam Forest surveys provide critical information for many diverse interests. Data are often collected from samples, and from these samples, maps of resources and estimates of aerial totals or averages are required. In this paper, two approaches for mapping and estimating totals; the spatial linear model (SLM) and k-NN (k-Nearest Neighbor) are compared, theoretically, through simulations, and as applied to real forestry data. While both methods have desirable properties, a review shows that the SLM has prediction optimality properties, and can be quite robust. Simulations of artificial populations and resamplings of real forestry data show that the SLM has smaller empirical root-mean-squared prediction errors (RMSPE) for a wide variety of data types, with generally less bias and better interval coverage than k-NN. These patterns held for both point predictions and for population totals or averages, with the SLM reducing RMSPE from 9% to 67% over some popular k-NN methods, with SLM also more robust to spatially imbalanced sampling. Estimating prediction standard errors remains a problem for k-NN predictors, despite recent attempts using model-based methods. Our conclusions are that the SLM should generally be used rather than k-NN if the goal is accurate mapping or estimation of population totals or averages. To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Public Library of Science and can be found at: http://www.plos.org/. 2013-03-19T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/1957/38696 Ethanol Attracts Scolytid Beetles to Phytophthora ramorum Cankers on Coast Live Oak Kelsey, Rick G.; Beh, Maia M.; Shaw, David C.; Manter, Daniel K. Ethanol in sapwood was analyzed along vertical transects, through small spot cankers and larger basal cankers, of Phytophthora ramorum-infected stems of Quercus agrifolia at three sites in California. Trees with large basal cankers, known to attract scolytid beetles, had a 4.3 times higher ethanol level than trees with spot cankers that attract fewer beetles. Ethanol concentrations inside cankers, where scolytid beetles preferentially attack, varied by about four orders of magnitude among samples, with a median level of 16.0 mu g.g(-1) fresh mass. This concentration was 4.3 and 15.5 times greater, respectively, than the concentrations at 1 cm or 15-30 cm outside the canker boundaries. In the laboratory, we demonstrated that ethanol escaped through the bark of a Q. garryana log just 3 days after it was added to the sapwood. At the three study sites, traps baited with ethanol captured more Xyleborinus saxesenii, Pseudopityophthorus pubipennis, and Monarthrum dentiger (all Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) than traps baited with ethanol plus (-)-alpha-pinene, or ethanol plus 4-allylanisole (4AA). Logs of Q. agrifolia with a 50 % ethanol solution added to the sapwood were placed at the study sites, with or without additional bark treatments above the ethanol. The number of scolytid beetle gallery holes above the ethanol-infused sapwood was 4.4 times greater than that on the opposite side of the log where no ethanol was added. Attachment of ultra-high release (-)-alpha-pinene pouches to the bark surface above the 50 % ethanol solution reduced scolytid attacks to a density of 19.1 % that of logs without this treatment. We conclude that ethanol in P. ramorum cankers functions as a primary host attractant for scolytid beetles and is an important link in colonization of these cankers and accelerated mortality of Q. agrifolia. The results of this research shed light on the chemical ecology behind the focused scolytid attacks on P. ramorum-infected coast live oaks, and lay the groundwork for future efforts to prolong the survival of individual trees of this keystone species. To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Springer and can be found at: http://www.springer.com/?SGWID=0-102-0-0-0. 2013-03-24T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/1957/38559 Stand development, fire and growth of old-growth and young forests in southwestern Oregon, USA Sensenig, Thomas; Bailey, John D.; Tappeiner, John C. We studied stand development in three distinct forest types in southwestern Oregon using six stands each in uncut and clear-felled old-growth stands and nearby young stands (18 total). Old-growth stands showed a wide range of tree ages (>300 years) and low tree densities for several centuries; rapid early growth produced trees with large crowns and diameters, as well as low height-to-diameter ratios. In contrast, young stands established much quicker and at higher tree densities; beyond their initial 20 years, trees had smaller diameters at equivalent ages, slower growth rates, smaller crowns and higher H:D than trees in old-growth stands. Low-intensity disturbance, likely dominated by fire, was common in oldgrowth stands during their early development. Fire scars showed these stands burned frequently from 1700 to 1900, and low levels of tree recruitment occurred in a complex relationship with fire during this 200 years. There was no evidence of fire, however, in either old-growth or young stands after 1909, and their densities were well above that of 1900; in old-growth stands, 15–25% of the basal growth occurred from 1950 to 1990, and it appears that they are on a development pathway different from what they experienced from 1700 to 1900. Furthermore, tree recruitment has been limited in both old-growth and young stands since 1950 while biomass and fuels continue to accumulate rapidly. Past stand dynamics can be emulated by prescribed fire and light thinning to reduce risk of loss from severe fire or insects, as well as to partially restore stand conditions that existed prior to fire exclusion. Our results suggest that young stands can be grown to produce high levels of biomass/wood, or their development can be altered to more closely follow that of old-growth stands depending on management objectives. To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Elsevier and can be found at: http://www.elsevier.com/. 2013-01-05T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/1957/37902 Keying forest stream protection to aquatic ecosystem values in multi-ownership watersheds Pickard, Brian R. Forested lands of western Oregon provide aquatic habitat for many fish and riparian dependent species, including a wide variety of salmon species. Current policies set riparian protections using fixed buffers on streams for federal and private lands based on stream type or size. These buffers can create a series of disjointed riparian protections, as federal lands require buffers that are much larger than private lands. In addition, the fixed buffer approach is neither flexible nor tailored to aquatic ecosystem values. This thesis presents a framework for comprehensively assessing stream networks using site specific watershed features and then suggests riparian conservation strategies that key stream and riparian protection to aquatic ecosystem values. Seven study watersheds were used in this analysis, totaling over 2.5 million acres of forested lands in western Oregon. Employing a set of geospatial tools, called NetMap, streams in each watershed were classified into higher and lower priorities using criteria of intrinsic potential, erosion/debris flow susceptibility, and thermal loading potential. Results demonstrated the inherent variability within and among watersheds based on the geomorphic and ecological processes determined important for selected salmon species. Within each watershed, both federal and non-federal lands had many miles of higher priority fish-bearing and non-fish bearing streams, suggesting the need for comprehensive, holistic watershed conservation strategies. Based on the partitioning of streams into higher and lower priorities, an alternative riparian conservation strategy was then modeled for federal lands that allocate protection on the basis of the ecological context of a stream segment’s potential and particular location while still meeting federal aquatic conservation goals and objectives. Possible increases to the land base for long-term timber production were then identified if this strategy were applied to federal Matrix lands. Results demonstrated that 8-30 percent of the current riparian buffers could be reallocated to the land base for long-term timber production. An additional 26-45 percent of current buffers could be managed simultaneously for both timber production and aquatic ecosystem goals. Results also provided a framework for targeting of conservation and restoration efforts towards higher priority streams within each watershed. As many of the most ecologically important streams were located on non-federal lands, riparian conservation policies focused on streams classified as higher priority on those lands may be needed to protect aquatic species and their environments. Graduation date: 2013 2013-03-15T00:00:00Z