http://hdl.handle.net/1957/14946 2013-06-18T21:18:24Z http://hdl.handle.net/1957/38100 Sub-Perfect Game: Profitable Biases of NBA Referees Price, Joseph; Remer, Marc; Stone, Daniel F. This paper empirically investigates three hypotheses regarding biases of National Basketball Association (NBA) referees. Using a sample of 28,388 quarter-level observations from six seasons, we find that referees make calls that favor home teams, teams losing during games, and teams losing in playoff series. All three biases are likely to increase league revenues. In order to distinguish between referee and player behavior we use play-by-play data, which allow us to analyze turnovers referees have relatively high and low discretion over separately. This is the author's peer-reviewed final manuscript, as accepted by the publisher. The published article is copyrighted by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. and can be found at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/%28ISSN%291530-9134. To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. 2012-01-18T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/1957/35958 Measurement error and the hot hand Stone, Daniel F. This paper shows the first autocorrelation of basketball shot results is a highly biased and inconsistent estimator of the first autocorrelation of the ex ante probabilities the shots are made. Shot result autocorrelation is close to zero even when shot probability autocorrelation is close to one. The bias is caused by what is equivalent to a severe measurement error problem. The results imply that the widespread belief among players and fans in the hot hand is not necessarily a cognitive fallacy. This is the author's peer-reviewed final manuscript, as accepted by the publisher. The published article is copyrighted by Taylor & Francis and can be found at: http://www.tandfonline.com/toc/utas20/current. 2012-02-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/1957/35861 Asymmetric effects of trade costs on entry modes: Firm level evidence Tekin-Koru, Ayca Standard foreign direct investment (FDI) theory suggests that falling trade costs should discourage horizontal FDI. Most FDI is horizontal. Yet, the world witnessed an FDI boom in 1990s, a period of striking falls in trade barriers. This paper carries out an empirical analysis with rich, firm-level data on the activities of Swedish multinationals around the globe in manufacturing sectors from 1987 to 1998 to shed light on this apparent conflict. The analysis is based on the predictions of a recent literature with an industrial organization (IO) angle: Trade costs have asymmetric effects on foreign expansion modes. This view posits that falling trade costs encourage entry realized as mergers and acquisitions (M&As), one of the potential explanations for the conflict between received theory and recent trends in FDI. Empirical results confirm the findings of this recent literature and add to it by testing its extensions. This is the author's peer-reviewed final manuscript, as accepted by the publisher. The published article is copyrighted by Elsevier and can be found at: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/european-economic-review/. 2012-02-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/1957/14967 Optimally managing a stochastic renewable resource under general economic conditions McGough, Bruce; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Costello, Christopher Empirical evidence indicates that environmental fluctuations have important effects on fisheries production. However, existing analytical solutions of stochastic fisheries models have been produced only under highly simplified economic and biological conditions. The main contribution of this paper is to derive under general conditions a policy function for the management of a stochastic fishery. Our model includes general specifications of demand and cost relationships and a stochastic biological growth function with serially-correlated shocks. Applying methods from the theory of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modeling and multivariate linear expectational difference equations, we derive a linear approximation of the solution to the model. Our main result is a reduced-form expression for an approximation to optimal escapement, which is shown to be a function of the current stock, past environmental shocks, and model parameters. This theoretically-grounded policy function has intuitive appeal, yields insights into comparative statics, and provides a theoretically-grounded, practical starting point for fisheries management. Article appears in and is copyrighted by Berkeley Electronic Press (http://www.bepress.com/) 2009-12-28T00:00:00Z