http://hdl.handle.net/1957/12251 The Water Resources Graduate Program awards both Masters and PhDs. Degrees in the areas of Water Resources Engineering, Water Resources Science, and Water Resources Policy and Management are available. The theses and dissertations produced by students since the program’s inception in 2003 are available here. Sat, 25 May 2013 20:52:42 GMT 2013-05-25T20:52:42Z http://hdl.handle.net/1957/38119 Will we need to change the rules : assessing the implications of climate change for dam operations in Oregon's McKenzie River Basin Danner, Allison G. Dams and reservoirs are important components of water resource management systems, but their operational sensitivity to streamflow variability may make them vulnerable to climate change. Climate change is likely to affect the magnitude and timing of streamflow, motivating the assessment of potential impacts on dams and reservoirs. Here I examine a case study of Cougar Dam, a multipurpose dam in Oregon, USA, to assess potential impacts of future climate change on operational performance. In the first portion of this study, I examine the historical operation of Cougar Dam, to understand (1), whether operational objectives have been achievable in the past despite operational variability, and (2) how climatic variation is expressed in operational trajectories. By analyzing historical streamflow and operations data using a set of metrics, I characterize variability in past operations and how that variability relates to streamflow. I also employ a reservoir model to distinguish operational differences due to streamflow variability from variability due to other factors that affect operations. I find that operational objectives have been achievable, despite variability in operations and departures from the ideal operational trajectory. Throughout the historical period, flood control operations have almost always kept reservoir outflows below the desired maximum outflow. Although filling occurs 9 days late on average, the reservoir has filled in all but 6 out of 37 years. Although drawdown occurs 47 days early on average, early drawdown does not generally impact recreation and allows minimum outflows to be met every day during all but the driest year. I also find that total seasonal inflow is correlated with measures of operational performance, and that other factors besides climate play an important role in determining operational trajectories. I conclude that operations of Cougar Reservoir are vulnerable to climate change, but that operational flexibility may mitigate some of the potential impacts. In the second portion of this study I assume that current operating rules will be kept in place and I aim to understand what types of operational impacts may be expected, when they may be expected to occur, and whether the operational impacts may necessitate changing operational rules. I employ both a traditional climate impacts assessment approach to assess changes over time as well as a scenario-neutral approach to generalize relationships between streamflow and operations of Cougar Dam. I find that projected increases in winter streamflow could result in up to twice the number of downstream high flows than in the past and that projected decreases in summer streamflow could result in earlier reservoir drawdown by up to 20 days on average. Additionally, filling of the reservoir may occur up to 16% more often or 11% less often than in the past, depending on spring flow magnitude and timing. I also find that there are strong general relationships between total inflow volume and flood control performance, and that there are total inflow thresholds for whether or not the reservoir will fill or will be full enough for recreation in late summer. I conclude that future modification of operating policies may be warranted, but that there will likely be tradeoffs between operating objectives in the future even if operating rules are modified. Graduation date: 2013 Thu, 21 Mar 2013 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/1957/38119 2013-03-21T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/1957/36232 Glacier change in a basin of the Peruvian Andes and implications for water resources Burns, Patrick J. (Patrick Joseph) Declines in glacier area and volume are widespread. These changes will have important hydrologic consequences since glaciers store tremendous amounts of fresh water and buffer seasonally low flows in many densely populated regions. In this thesis I focus on a region that is hydrologically vulnerable to glacier change, namely the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. I present three manuscripts that focus on measuring glacier area change, modeling the effect of this area change on the hydrology of one watershed, and isotopic sampling to elucidate hydrologic processes in this watershed and the entire Cordillera Blanca. In the first manuscript, I describe a methodology for mapping glaciers using satellite imagery. Satellite data, in conjunction with automated glacier mapping methods, are being used more frequently to map changes in glacier size. In contrast to the majority of studies using automated methods, I correct satellite images for atmospheric effects. Mapping glaciers with atmospherically-corrected satellite images resulted in an approximately 5% increase in glacier area, relative to glaciers mapped with non-atmospherically-corrected images. I also applied a consistent threshold that was validated using high-resolution satellite imagery. This helps to reduce error associated with change analysis. For the entire Cordillera Blanca, I calculated a 25% decrease in glacier area from 1987 to 2010. The rate of glacier area loss has increased significantly based on the most recent estimates. In the second manuscript, I use a physically-based, hydrologic model, the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) with a newly-coupled dynamic glacier model to simulate stream discharge and glacier change in the Llanganuco watershed of the Cordillera Blanca. I also examined statistical trends associated with historical records of temperature, precipitation, and discharge. I observed significant positive trends in annual temperature, but no trends in precipitation or discharge despite a 25% reduction in glacier area in this watershed over the same time. The model setup process and the results of sensitivity analyses are described. Of the input parameters I examined, I found that the model was particularly sensitive to changes in albedo and precipitation. Based on established efficiency criteria, the newly-coupled model did a decent job of simulating historical stream discharge and glacier area during 10 year calibration and validation periods. However, due to the lack of additional validation data and an inability to quantify uncertainty associated with model output, the model is not yet ready to be used for predicting future discharge based on different climate projections. In the third manuscript I describe the knowledge gained about hydrologic processes from isotopic sampling in the Llanganuco watershed, as well as other watersheds of the Cordillera Blanca. Thirty water samples from Llanganuco were collected in July 2011 and measured for stable isotopes of water, δ¹⁸O and δ²H. I first calculated the isotopic lapse rate, or the relationship between isotopic values and elevation. Lapse rates from this watershed are slightly more positive than global averages. This observation is best explained by the influence of glaciers. I also calculated the strength of the relationship between isotopic values and percent glacier cover. For Llanganuco, glacier cover is a better predictor of isotopic value than elevation. Based on examination of the same relationships at larger scales in the Cordillera Blanca, this relationship appears to be persistent at a regional scale. Finally, I used a simple two-component mixing model to estimate the relative contributions of glacier meltwater and groundwater in the Llanganuco watershed. Glacier meltwater made up approximately three-fourths of surface water that exited the watershed during this two week period in July, 2011. The importance of glacier meltwater is clearly demonstrated using stable isotopes, but further, more detailed monthly sampling is necessary to accurately determine annual and dry season streamflow contributions from glacier meltwater and groundwater. Graduation date: 2013 Mon, 26 Nov 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/1957/36232 2012-11-26T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/1957/35869 Hydraulic predictors and seasonal distribution of Manayunkia speciosa density in the Klamath River, CA, with implications for ceratomyxosis, a disease of salmon and trout Jordan, Michelle S. The freshwater polychaete Manayunkia speciosa was identified as an obligate host of the salmonid parasite Ceratomyxa shasta in 1997, prompting increased research on the small benthic invertebrate. Ceratomyxa shasta infection in fish can cause mortality, and presents a disease risk for both hatchery and wild salmon and trout. Ceratomyxa shasta is endemic to rivers of the Pacific Northwest, and its effects have been particularly well documented in the Klamath River, Oregon and California. One option for managing C. shasta impacts is by decreasing densities of M. speciosa through habitat manipulation, thus decreasing amplification of the parasite. The Klamath River is regulated by irrigation and hydropower dams, thus manipulating the hydrograph to destabilize habitat is a possibility. Decreasing habitat through flow manipulation requires a thorough understanding of the hydraulic environment of polychaete habitat, and how that environment changes with discharge. This thesis proposes an influence diagram of physical variables driving M. speciosa density, and investigates several of them. Samples were collected for enumerating M. speciosa density from nine sites in the Klamath River over 15 months, and seasonal density changes were examined, as were the relationships between density and hydraulic variables (depth, average velocity, substrate size, Reynolds number, Froude number). Density increased directly with depth and inversely with velocity, and was greater on small (silt, sand) and large (boulder, bedrock) substrate relative to medium substrate (gravel, cobble). Density was highest in the summer (July, August, September), and there was evidence that summer densities were influenced by spring discharges through the mechanism of substrate mobilization. Differences in infection prevalence among seasons and habitats were also investigated; however, very low overall incidence of infection limited any conclusions. Based on these results, it is recommended that habitat modeling for management of M. speciosa populations include a habitat stability component that incorporates s whether peak discharge the previous year surpassed a stability threshold. Graduation date: 2013 Fri, 09 Nov 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/1957/35869 2012-11-09T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/1957/35853 An ecosystem service approach to inform reactive nitrogen management in the lower Yakima River Basin, Washington Crowell, Morgan Spatially explicit ecosystem service valuation (ESV) allows for the identification of the location and magnitude of services provided by natural ecosystems to human activities along with a measure of their significance based upon economic valuation. While ESV has been used to provide new insight into land use management, few studies have identified the connections between the values of ecosystem services and ecological sensitivity to nitrogen loading despite a growing body of ecosystem service literature. This research combines a GIS-based, value transfer approach to map ecosystem services in the Lower Yakima River Basin (LYRB), Washington, USA, along with estimates of nitrogen loading to identify how nitrogen management may affect ecosystem services in the basin. This analysis combines values of ecosystem services with estimates of nitrogen loading and identifies subwatersheds and specific parcels within a Groundwater Management Area (GWMA) most susceptible to reductions in ecosystem services due to excess nitrogen loading. Based on the benefit transfer analysis, wetlands and forested areas have disproportionately high values of ecosystem services when compared to their land area in the LYRB, while pasture and cultivated crops contribute much less to the total value of ecosystem service flows in proportion to the total area in the LYRB. Across the study area estimated nitrogen loads are strongly driven by the location of concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) and cultivated crops. Areas of particularly high nitrogen loading and high ESV may highlight specific areas for achieving immediate success in increasing or maintaining ecosystem services through appropriately focused regulatory mechanisms. The land cover analysis however, completely neglects the values and importance of subsurface processes and groundwater resources in ecosystem service assessment, and therefore an econometric model is applied to estimate willingness to pay (WTP) to maintain safe nitrate levels in private wells. Through the incorporation of WTP estimates for groundwater quality, a more complete economic and ecological perspective on the effects of landscape N loading in the study site is highlighted. The results of these estimates clearly indicate that ecosystem services from groundwater should be considered to have significant value in the LYRB. Further economic valuation data on specific land cover types and the value of groundwater quality, whether from primary studies or meta-analysis, is needed to refine relative measures of ecosystem service values and more confidently describe these values in specific dollar amounts. Additionally, limits in spatial data resolution may contribute to errors in location and magnitude of ecosystem services, and is an area in need of further development. Despite these potential limitations, this analysis highlights a promising direction for combining spatially explicit ecosystem service valuation with nutrient loading data to identify the location and potential magnitude of effects on ecosystem services from management practices. Graduation date: 2013 Sat, 03 Nov 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/1957/35853 2012-11-03T00:00:00Z