Abstract:
Agricultural land conversion is a complex process that involves a
matrix of decisions and decision-makers. This study examines the
nature and relative significance of spatial factors that influence the
decisions of farmers who either sell farmland to developers for urban
use or retain it for agricultural use. The conceptual model views
farmers as boundedly rational individuals who seek satisfying economic
and noneconomic returns from land. Their decisions are influenced by
urban-generated factors that reflect land demand, by agricultural
factors that determine the economic viability of agriculture under
urban influences as well as by the decision-makers' characteristics.
The study is done within the political and socioeconomic context of
Bangkok, Thailand. The Thonburi region of the Bangkok Metropolitan
Area is chosen as an example of a land use transition zone
experiencing various urbanization pressures. Aerial photography is
used to establish the location and magnitude of agricultural to urban
land conversion between 1967 and 1983. Data from land use maps
constructed from the air photo base maps and data from the
Agricultural Census are used to test the research hypotheses of the
study. The two primary research questions are: 1) Are the farmers'
decisions to hold or to sell land related to urbanization pressures,
economic viability of agriculture and farmers' characteristics?; and
2) What is the relative significance of these factors in influencing
land conversion? Bivariate correlation and multiple regression
analyses reveal the significant relationships of farmland conversion
and the following variables: accessibility of land parcels, level of
agricultural investment, age, education and occupational status. The
dominant explanatory variables are the proximity to community centers
and major roads. Secondary to them are the roles of farmers' age,
education level and investment in irrigation. The effects of the
other decision-maker's characteristics and agricultural variables are
marginal but statistically significant. The study provides insight
into the roles of agricultural viability as well as urban demand
factors and decision-maker's characteristics in influencing the pace
of land conversion in the developing country.
