Abstract:
Two econometric models were developed to forecast consumption,
production, and price of hardwood lumber, and removals and price
of hardwood sawlog stumpage. Four eastern U.S. regions were represented
in the models. Hardwood lumber consumption by manufacturing,
shipping, residential construction, and nonresidential construction
industries was recognized. Hardwood sawlog stumpage removals from
nonindustrial private and forest industry ownerships were identified
in each of the four eastern regions.
Each model consisted of behavioral relationships which explain
consumption, production, or removals as a function of price and
other explanatory variables. Estimates of these relationships were
developed using annual time series data for the sample period 1960
to 1976. Based on the analysis of historical simulations, the
models appeared to provide adequate predictive ability to be used
to develop forecasts.
Hardwood lumber consumption, production, and price were forecast
to increase to the year 2030. Manufacturing and shipping industries increase their share of hardwood lumber consumption
over this time period. Hardwood lumber production shares increase
for the two southern regions. Hardwood sawlog stumpage removals
for the nonindustrial private and forest industry ownerships were
forecast to increase. The nonindustrial private share of hardwood
sawlog stumpage removals declines. Hardwood sawlog stumpage
prices were forecast to decline in three of the four eastern
regions.
