The Dynamics of Work, Poverty, and Business Cycles: An Analysis of Oregon Households Receiving Food Assistance

Abstract

Oregon’s Supplemental Nutrition Assistance (SNAP) (formerly called Food Stamps) rose by 33% between October 2008 and October 2009 as the economy went into recession and the unemployment rate increased. The percentage of Oregon’s overall population receiving SNAP benefits increased from 11.8% in July 2005 to 16.3% in July 2009. With an estimated 87% of Oregon’s eligible population participating in SNAP, the caseload provides a reasonable representation of the state’s poor households in general. This paper analyzes the characteristics of SNAP households using three intake cohorts: calendar years 2003 and 2005, and fiscal year 2009. These years represent two recessions and a period of economic expansion. These cohorts are analyzed in terms of family structure, employment and earnings, and other measures. The cohorts are compared to poverty statistics and to Oregon households in general. The cohorts are analyzed to gain insight into how the business cycle affects household poverty. The earlier cohorts are analyzed with respect to SNAP receipt spell length and recidivism. Determinants of spell length and recidivism are then examined within the 2009 cohort to determine how quickly and to what extent that cohort, and the poor households it represents, might respond to an economic recovery. Suggestions are made as to the further use of these data for policy and program planning.