Abstract:
This research sought to explore the implications of different tenure regimes for both
landscape-level ecological processes and the overall resilience of a social-ecological
system in Central Oregon. The purchase by an investor of former industrial timberlands
known as the Bull Springs tract raised the specter of dispersed residential development on
the periphery of Bend, Oregon, leading to legislation redefining tenure in the region. This
research examined how different forms of tenure on the tract would affect landscapelevel
ecological processes and how the enacted tenure redefinition might affect the
resilience of the social-ecological system to future perturbations. Data simulating the
future vegetation conditions under two tenure scenarios on the Bull Springs – dispersed
residential development and working forest management – were used to map habitat for
three species representing different ecosystem services. Landscape pattern metrics were
used to compare the simulated differences in spatial patterns of mule deer (Odocoileus
hemionus) habitat, American marten (Martes americana) habitat and old-growth
ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) woodlands. The results were then interpreted using a
social-ecological systems framework describing linkages between tenure and ecological
processes. Results from the simulation modeling showed multifunctional habitat patches
for mule deer became more isolated and smaller when the Bull Springs was developed,
and development of the tract led to greater average isolation of habitat patches, lowered
extensiveness across the landscape and a reduction of most measures of total habitat area
for both mule deer and American marten. Ponderosa pine woodlands grew substantially
in quantity under both scenarios, but the development of the Bull Springs removed a
large swath from the middle of the ponderosa pine belt, interrupted north-south
connectivity and reduced the extent of potential ponderosa pine woodland conditions.
Development projected to occur outside the Bull Springs largely determined the
cumulative impacts of both scenarios, but working forest management would be an
improvement over development for most metrics for the three species. With respect to
resilience, the legislative tenure redefinition would change the linkages between
communities in the region and the ecosystem services of value, and these linkages could
vary in strength and in the scale of applicability. Understanding how forestland
ownership change intersects with landscape ecology as land uses change is critical for
evaluating policies that manage these changes. Identifying the ecological impacts avoided
by managing the Bull Springs as a working forest can inform landscape-level planning to
ensure that future development does not recreate these losses elsewhere in the region.
Study of these components and linkages contributes to broader efforts to understand and
manage the dynamics of social-ecological systems at multiple scales to make social wellbeing
and ecological integrity resilient to future disturbances.
