Abstract:
An integrated model combining a wildlife population simulation model, and
timber harvest and growth models was developed to explore the tradeoffs between the
likelihood of persistence of a wildlife species and timber harvest values on a landscape
in the Central Oregon Cascades. Simulated annealing, a heuristic optimization
technique, was used to identify harvest schedules that maximized the net present value
of timber harvest relative to a given wildlife habitat constraint over a 100 year planning
period. This habitat constraint was identified by a logit regression model that estimated
the likelihood of species persistence from a series of weighted habitat scores developed
from extensive simulation work within the wildlife population model. By solving this
problem for a range of different species persistence constraints a production possibility
frontier is developed that shows the relative tradeoffs between timber harvest value and
likelihood of species persistence on this landscape. Although the results are specific to
the wildlife species and the landscapes analyzed, the approach is general and may
provide a structure for future models that will allow land managers and forest planners
to become more informed about the tradeoffs among competing resources.
