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An empirical statistical model relating winds and ocean surface currents : implications for short-term current forecasts

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dc.contributor.advisor Kosro, P. Michael
dc.creator Zelenke, Brian Christopher
dc.date.accessioned 2006-06-12T20:11:49Z
dc.date.available 2006-06-12T20:11:49Z
dc.date.issued 2005-12-02
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/1957/2166
dc.description Graduation date: 2006
dc.description Presented on 2005-12-02
dc.description.abstract An empirical statistical model is developed that relates the non-tidal motion of the ocean surface currents off the Oregon coast to forecasts of the coastal winds. The empirical statistical model is then used to produce predictions of the surface currents that are evaluated for their agreement with measured currents. Measurements of the ocean surface currents were made at 6 km resolution using Long-Range CODAR SeaSonde high-frequency (HF) surface current mappers and wind forecasts were provided at 12 km resolution by the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. First, the response of the surface currents to wind-forcing measured by five coastal National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) stations was evaluated using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. A significant correlation of approximately 0.8 was found between the majority of the variability in the seasonal anomalies of the low-pass filtered surface currents and the seasonal anomalies of the low-pass filtered wind stress measurements. The U and the V components of the measured surface currents were both shown to be forced by the zonal and meridional components of the wind-stress at the NDBC stations. Next, the NAM wind forecasts were tested for agreement with the measurements of the wind at the NDBC stations. Significant correlations of around 0.8 for meridional wind stress and 0.6 for zonal wind stress were found between the seasonal anomalies of the low-pass filtered wind stress measured by the NDBC stations and the seasonal anomalies of the low-pass filtered wind stress forecast by the NAM model. Given the amount of the variance in the winds captured by the NAM model and the response of the ocean surface currents to both components of the wind, bilinear regressions were formed relating the seasonal anomalies of the low-pass filtered NAM forecasts to the seasonal anomalies of the low-pass filtered surface currents. The regressions turned NAM wind forecasts into predictions of the seasonal anomalies of the low-pass filtered surface currents. Calculations of the seasonal cycle in the surface currents, added to these predicted seasonal anomalies, produced a non-tidal estimation of the surface currents that allowed a residual difference to be calculated from recent surface current measurements. The sum of the seasonal anomalies, the seasonal cycle, and the residual formed a prediction of the non-tidal surface currents. The average error in this prediction of the surface currents off the Oregon coast remained less than 4 cm/s out through 48 hours into the future. en
dc.format.extent 3001146 bytes
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.language.iso en_US en
dc.subject CODAR en
dc.subject High-frequency (HF) radar en
dc.subject surface en
dc.subject Current en
dc.subject NAM en
dc.subject Kosro en
dc.subject Bilinear en
dc.subject regressions en
dc.subject Ocean en
dc.subject Oceanography en
dc.subject Empirical en
dc.subject Statistical en
dc.subject Wind en
dc.subject Oregon en
dc.subject Radio en
dc.subject Forecast en
dc.subject COAS en
dc.subject Coastal en
dc.subject physical en
dc.subject Predict en
dc.subject EOF en
dc.subject Mapping en
dc.subject Buoy en
dc.subject GLOBEC en
dc.subject NASA en
dc.subject NSF en
dc.subject Seasonal en
dc.subject Low-pass filtered en
dc.subject Stress en
dc.subject Marine en
dc.subject.lcsh Ocean currents -- Oregon -- Pacific Coast -- Forecasting en
dc.subject.lcsh Ocean currents -- Oregon -- Pacific Coast -- Mathematical models en
dc.subject.lcsh Ocean-atmosphere interaction -- Oregon -- Pacific Coast -- Mathematical models en
dc.subject.lcsh Winds -- Oregon -- Pacific Coast en
dc.title An empirical statistical model relating winds and ocean surface currents : implications for short-term current forecasts en
dc.type Thesis en
dc.degree.name Master of Science (M.S.) in Oceanography en
dc.degree.level Master's en
dc.degree.discipline Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences en
dc.degree.grantor Oregon State University en
dc.contributor.committeemember Strub, P. Ted
dc.contributor.committeemember Shearman, R. Kipp
dc.contributor.committeemember Kerkvliet, Nancy


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