Graduate Thesis Or Dissertation
 

An analysis of the intraseasonal demand for Bartlett pears

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https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/graduate_thesis_or_dissertations/z603r0997

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  • The purpose of the present study has been the specification and measurement of the characteristics of the intraseasonal demand for fresh Bartlett pears. In particular, the study has focused attention on a particular producing area, the Rogue River Valley of Oregon. The intraseasonal analysis for fresh Bartlett pears was performed using two alternative specifications on the model of the Bartlett pear market. In the first model, it was assumed that each bi-weekly supply function was perfectly inelastic and that the supply quantity was determined by factors other than the current price of fresh Bartlett pears. The bi-weekly demand functions were estimated by the ordinary least-squares method. In the second model, it was assumed that growers set prices on the basis of the market prices they had most recently observed and of their total holdings of Bartlett pears. A price predicting equation was then estimated by ordinary least-squares and the resulting predicted prices were used in estimating the parameters of the demand functions. In both models, the analysis was performed alternatively by subperiods and by marketing seasons. The latter differed from the former in that the years under study were separated into sets of years having the same number of subperiods. The subperiod analyses were performed by two approaches: 1) a demand equation was estimated for each subperiod, and 2) a single equation was specified in which the observations were indexed by year and by subperiod. Dummy variables and product terms of the quantity variables were employed to permit shifts in the level and the slope of the demand function. The marketing season analyses were performed by the second approach. The results obtained from the investigation of the two hypotheses show that the Medford demand function changes level within season. This finding is more pronounced in the marketing season analysis. The marketing-season analysis of the first model indicated that changes in the slope of the demand function also took place. These results suggest that there is, in fact, a seasonal pattern to the derived demand facing the sellers of fresh Bartlett pears from Medford district. The elasticity of the Medford demand curve changes in response to the shifts of the California supply curve and possibly the appearance of the winter varieties. The two hypotheses yielded consistent results.
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