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Climate Change Impact on Drought Risk and Uncertainty in the Willamette River Basin

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dc.creator Jung, Il-Won
dc.creator Chang, Heejun
dc.date 24-May-2011 en_us
dc.date.accessioned 2011-08-26T20:43:15Z
dc.date.available 2011-08-26T20:43:15Z
dc.date.issued 2011-05-24
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/1957/22891
dc.description Presented at The Oregon Water Conference, May 24-25, 2011, Corvallis, OR. en_US
dc.description.abstract Climate change due to global warming could induce more frequent droughts in the Willamette River Basin because less snowfall in winter and earlier snowmelt due to temperature increase may lead to decreases in spring and summer streamflow. This study examines possible changes in drought risk using two drought indices, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI). SPI represents a climatological drought index that considers only precipitation change, while SRI is a hydrological drought index that considers water balance change. In rainfall-dominated regions in the Willamette Valley, SPI is a useful drought index. In snow-dominated regions in the High Cascades, SRI can show more realistic drought risk change because SRI can represent snowmelt and geology effects. Our results show that the Willamette Valley is more vulnerable to drought risk than the High Cascades in the 21st century. SPI shows increasing frequency and intensity of short-term drought over the whole Willamette River basin due to summer precipitation decrease, while SRI in the High Cascades shows no change because the High Cascades have young permeable volcanic rocks and gentle slopes, which create a deep groundwater system. Additionally, the frequency of short-term extreme drought, such as droughts lasting 1 to 3 months, is projected to increase in the Willamette Valley, but long-term extreme droughts are not expected to change significantly. The increase in short-term extreme droughts is attributed to decreases in summer precipitation, and the lack of change in long-term extreme droughts is caused by increased winter runoff prompted by earlier snowmelt and winter precipitation increases. en_US
dc.language.iso en_US en_US
dc.publisher The Oregon Water Conference en_US
dc.subject drought en_US
dc.subject climate change en_US
dc.subject SPI en_US
dc.subject SRI en_US
dc.subject uncertainty en_US
dc.subject Willamette River en_US
dc.subject Oregon en_US
dc.title Climate Change Impact on Drought Risk and Uncertainty in the Willamette River Basin en_US
dc.type Presentation en_US
dc.description.peerreview no en_US

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