Abstract:
The principal objective of this study was to identify
and investigate the underlying basis for variations in the
volumes of exports of U.S. winter pears during the 1947 to
1974 period. A number of factors thought to be of importance
in the determination of the volume of exports of a
specific commodity were hypothesized with reference to a
two-region partial equilibrium model of trade; these factors
were;the price of the exported commodity, the supply
of the commodity of interest in importing countries, the
prices of substitute commodities, consumer income, population
and the general price level in importing countries,
transportation costs in international trade, import restrictions
against the commodity of interest, and fluctuations
in exchange rates between the currency of the exporting
country and the currencies of importing countries.
The theoretical model was reformulated in terms of empirical
models of demand for U.S. winter pears in specific
export markets. The empirical analysis focused upon the
effects on season export volumes of changes in prices of
U.S. winter pears, changes in consumer income, changes in
levels of pear production in consuming areas, and changes
in the international trade policies of important importing
countries.
The results suggested that changes in the international
trade policies of important importing countries and changes
in the production levels of pears in consuming regions have
been of principal importance in the determination of
volumes of export sales of U.S. winter pears. In general,
inverse relationships between prices and export volumes of
U.S. winter pears were not found. However, an analysis of
factors affecting U.S. winter pear prices suggested that
fluctuations in demand for exports have significantly influenced
season average f.o.b. prices of U.S. winter pears
during the 1950 to 1974 period. Important factors influencing
domestic demand were found to be the supply of fresh
U.S. apples, the supply of fresh Bartlett pears after
October 1st, and changes in consumer income.
It was concluded that past unstable and uncertain
conditions in export markets will continue into the future
because of annual fluctuations in levels of pear production
in foreign countries and because of unpredictable changes
in import restrictions against U.S. winter pears in foreign
countries.
