Abstract:
Multiple linear regression was used to develop equations for 12-,
24-, and 36-hour surface wind forecasts for the wind energy site at
Goodnoe Hills. Equations were derived separately for warm and cool
seasons. The potential predictors included LFM II model output, MOS
surface wind forecasts extrapolated from surrounding stations, pressure
observations corrected to mean sea level, and two types of climatological
variables.
Forecasts of wind speed and direction were formulated for an independent
sample of predictands and predictors. The forecasts
were evaluated using standard methods of forecast verification and the
results are summarized in terms of several verification scores. Comparisons
of scores were made by season, projection time, and cycle (or
preparation) time, and some patterns were evident in the scores with
respect to these stratifications. The minimum value of the mean absolute
error attained by the forecast system presented here was 5.64 mph
for a 12-hour, cool season forecast equation. The minimum value of the
root mean square error was 7.57 mph for a 12-hour, warm season forecast
equation. Comparison of these results with the results of other
statistical wind forecasting studies indicates that the forecast
equations for Goodnoe Hills are of comparable accuracy to the
equations developed for other wind energy sites. Suggestions for
future investigations of statistical wind forecasting are offered
as well as recommendations concerning ways of improving the
forecasting system described in this study.
