Abstract:
A linear programming (LP) profit-maximization model and a Target MOTAD risk programming model were
developed to identify optimal management strategies and associated risk levels for the aquaculture of penaeid shrimp in
Honduras. Data for this study were provided by three cooperating shrimp farms and included complete production records of
1,004 ponds during the period 1997-99. Production records were analyzed to characterize pond productivity on a month-tomonth
basis. Subsequently, an LP model was developed which was used to formulate a profit-maximizing annual plan of
activities. For each month of the year, the model assumed that the farm manager had the option of selecting among 18
production activities characterized by varying stocking densities, lengths of grow-out periods, and water exchange regimes.
The basic model was adapted to three different farm-size scenarios. Results of the LP model indicated that farm income is
maximized by selecting intermediate densities, long grow-out cycles, and low water-exchange rates. Additionally, ponds
should only be stocked in specific months of the year. Next, Target MOTAD matrices were developed for each farm-size
scenario to quantify the levels of risk associated with the profit-maximizing solutions and identify alternative production
plans. However, resolution of the Target MOTAD models indicated low risk levels associated with the LP solutions and an
unnecessary reduction of profit if risk levels were to be further depressed. It then appears that the management strategies
selected by the LP models enable farm managers to achieve the two-fold objective of maximization of farm profit coupled
with low risk levels.
