Article

 

Measurement error and the hot hand Public Deposited

Downloadable Content

Download PDF
https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/articles/h989r3912

Descriptions

Attribute NameValues
Creator
Abstract
  • This paper shows the first autocorrelation of basketball shot results is a highly biased and inconsistent estimator of the first autocorrelation of the ex ante probabilities the shots are made. Shot result autocorrelation is close to zero even when shot probability autocorrelation is close to one. The bias is caused by what is equivalent to a severe measurement error problem. The results imply that the widespread belief among players and fans in the hot hand is not necessarily a cognitive fallacy.
  • Keywords: Overinference, Basketball, Autocorrelation, Psychology, Semi-streakiness, Errors-in-variables
Resource Type
DOI
Date Available
Date Issued
Citation
  • Stone, D. (2012). Measurement error and the hot hand. AMERICAN STATISTICIAN, 66(1), 61-66. doi: 10.1080/00031305.2012.676467
Journal Title
Journal Volume
  • 66
Journal Issue/Number
  • 1
Academic Affiliation
Rights Statement
Publisher
Peer Reviewed
Language
Replaces

Relationships

Parents:

This work has no parents.

Items