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Economics of drought preparedness and response in irrigated agriculture

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dc.contributor.advisor Adams, Richard M.
dc.creator Peck, Dannele E.
dc.date.accessioned 2007-01-18T18:12:39Z
dc.date.available 2007-01-18T18:12:39Z
dc.date.copyright 2006-12-13
dc.date.issued 2007-01-18T18:12:39Z
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/1957/3807
dc.description Graduation date: 2007
dc.description.abstract The impact of recent severe droughts throughout the United States, the potential for climate change to intensify the frequency and severity of drought, and discussion about the future of government assistance in agriculture highlight the need for a transition from drought as ‘disaster’ to drought as ‘managed risk’. However, guidance for agricultural producers about optimal drought preparedness and response is insufficient. It is particularly unclear what optimal drought preparedness and response should look like, in practice, for farm systems with uncertain water supplies and intra- and inter-year dynamics. A mathematical programming model that captures the stochastic and dynamic aspects of an irrigated row crop farm is developed and used to explore the nature of optimal drought preparedness and response. Results indicate several important characteristics. First, drought has the potential to generate heterogeneous impacts, even across a set of homogeneous farms. Second, a farm system with inter-year dynamics can continue to experience the effects of drought after the drought itself subsides; additionally, the effects of drought in one year can intensify the impact of drought in subsequent years. Third, in the presence of discount and interest rates, crop diversification does not maximize expected profit, even though it is often considered a drought management tool. Fourth, the primary effect of water supply uncertainty is the abandonment of more fall-prepared fields. Hence, the multi-peril crop insurance program’s prevented planting provision is identified as an optimal drought preparedness tool, even if unsubsidized. Finally, the predicted effects of climate change for snowmelt-dependent farm systems require distinctly different forms of adaptation, and cause profit losses of different magnitudes. Because the model captures both intra- and inter-year dynamics, it provides 1) a more thorough understanding of the complex tradeoffs that producers face when preparing for and responding to drought, 2) a more complete picture of the dynamic impacts of drought, and 3) important insights about the administration of drought assistance programs. Lastly, it elucidates the meaning of optimal drought preparedness; a notion that has received increased attention in the policy arena, but whose practical form has been only vaguely alluded to. en
dc.format.extent 2547532 bytes
dc.format.extent 668160 bytes
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dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
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dc.format.mimetype application/octet-stream
dc.format.mimetype application/vnd.ms-excel
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dc.language.iso en_US en
dc.subject discrete stochastic programming en
dc.subject dynamics en
dc.subject prevented planting provision en
dc.subject prolonged drought en
dc.subject multiple year model en
dc.subject drought preparedness en
dc.subject drought response en
dc.subject decision making under uncertainty en
dc.subject water supply uncertainty en
dc.subject eastern Oregon en
dc.subject irrigated agriculture en
dc.subject row crop farm en
dc.subject.lcsh Droughts -- Economic aspects -- Oregon, Eastern -- Mathematical models en
dc.subject.lcsh Water-supply -- Oregon, Eastern -- Mathematical models en
dc.subject.lcsh Drought relief -- Oregon, Eastern -- Mathematical models en
dc.title Economics of drought preparedness and response in irrigated agriculture en
dc.type Thesis en
dc.degree.name Doctor of Philosophy (Ph. D.) in Agricultural and Resource Economics en
dc.degree.level Doctoral en
dc.degree.discipline Agricultural Sciences en
dc.degree.grantor Oregon State University en
dc.contributor.committeemember English, Marshall
dc.contributor.committeemember Jaeger, William K.
dc.contributor.committeemember Perry, Gregory M.
dc.contributor.committeemember Wu, JunJie


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