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Jobs, Natural Amenities, Distance, Population, or Services : What Drives Age-Specific Migration for Small Oregon Communities? Public Deposited

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https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/graduate_projects/8049g693k

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  • Declining population is a major concern for rural communities. In many places, out-migration has led to a loss of key services. This essay investigates the role of services, as well as labor markets, natural amenities, distance to urban areas, and community size, in determining net migration rates for small Oregon communities for the 1990-2000 and 2000-2010 time periods. Estimates of age-specific migration rates for Oregon incorporated places show markedly different patterns for small communities, with such places experiencing severe outmigration among 20-to-24 year-olds, but adding population in older age groups. Regression analysis of net migration in Oregon communities with 1289 people or fewer shows that natural amenities, particularly low rainfall and proximity to open water, are primary drivers of community-specific migration rates. The effects of labor markets and distance to urban centers are found to wane, particularly for working-age migrants, in the 2000-2010 period, with the size of a community becoming a more important determinant of its net migration rate. Access to services, such as grocery stores, however, is found to significantly boost net migration rates and to mitigate the tendency for very small places to suffer net outmigration.
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