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Identifying Nash equilibrium strategies for a multi-fleet multi-national fishery under uncertainty

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  • Designing economic incentives to achieve a desired policy outcome from a fishery could be helped by exploring it within a game-theoretic context. We use Baltic salmon fishery to show how complex interactions between national fleets, offshore and coastal fishermen, and migratory stock dynamics can be analysed with a bio-economic model set up as a game of four asymmetric players. For Baltic salmon there is a stochastic and complex bio-economic model conditioned on a state-space Bayesian stock assessment which captures uncertainty in stock dynamics. We calculate Nash equilibrium under various cost and price scenarios for each combination of a salmon population model parameters, using an MCMC chain obtained from their joint posterior distribution so that the correlations between different life-history parameters are accounted for. We use results of many simulations to explore how natural variability and economic uncertainties affect Nash equilibrium strategies.
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  • Levontin, P. & Kulmala, S. Identifying Nash equilibrium strategies for a multi-fleet multi-national fishery under uncertainty. In: Visible Possibilities: The Economics of Sustainable Fisheries, Aquaculture and Seafood Trade: Proceedings of the Sixteenth Biennial Conference of the International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade, July 16-20, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Edited by Ann L. Shriver. International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade (IIFET), Corvallis, 2012.
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  • AQUAFISH, USAID, NEPAD Planning and Coordination Agency, Norad, The World Bank, Hyatt Regency Dar es Salaam, NAAFE, World Wildlife Fund, United Nations University Fisheries Training Programme, ICEIDA, JICA, JIFRS, The European Association of Fisheries Economists, International Seafood Sustainability Foundation
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