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Comparing vector–host and SIR models for dengue transmission

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https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/articles/h128ng47z

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Abstract
  • Various simple mathematical models have been used to investigate dengue transmission. Some of these models explicitly model the mosquito population, while others model the mosquitoes implicitly in the transmission term. We study the impact of modeling assumptions on the dynamics of dengue in Thailand by fitting dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) data to simple vector–host and SIR models using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation. The parameter estimates obtained for both models were consistent with previous studies. Most importantly, model selection found that the SIR model was substantially better than the vector–host model for the DHF data from Thailand. Therefore, explicitly incorporating the mosquito population may not be necessary in modeling dengue transmission for some populations.
  • This is an author's peer-reviewed final manuscript, as accepted by the publisher. The published article is copyrighted by Elsevier and can be found at: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/mathematical-biosciences/.
  • Keywords: Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Mathematical model, Parameter estimation, Dengue
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  • Pandey, A., Mubayi, A., & Medlock, J. (2013). Comparing vector-host and SIR models for dengue transmission. Mathematical Biosciences, 246(2), 252-259. doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2013.10.007
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  • 246
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  • 2
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  • The authors thank Clemson University and Oregon State University for the funding for this study.
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