Recent findings indicate that ENSO may modulate the
strength of the Indian monsoons by altering the meridional
tropospheric temperature gradient between Asia and the
equatorial Indian Ocean. Here we show that during northern
hemisphere summertime El Nino events both colder upper
tropospheric temperatures and increased vorticity anomalies
are observed within...
Corrections
18 Mar 2010: Shaman J, Pitzer VE, Viboud C, Grenfell BT, Lipsitch M (2010) Correction: Absolute Humidity and the Seasonal Onset of Influenza in the Continental United States. PLOS Biology 8(3): 10.1371/annotation/35686514-b7a9-4f65-9663-7baefc0d63c0.
15 Mar 2010: Shaman J, Pitzer VE, Viboud C, Grenfell BT, Lipsitch M (2010) Correction: Absolute Humidity...
The frequency of moderate to heavy rainfall events is projected to change in response to global warming. Here we show that these hydrologic changes may have a profound effect on mosquito population dynamics and rates of mosquito-borne disease transmission. We develop a simple model, which treats the mosquito reproductive cycle...
This study presents two new modeling strategies. First, a methodology for
representing the physical process of subsurface storm flow within a TOPMODEL
framework is developed. In using this approach, discharge at quick flow timescales is
simulated, and a fuller depiction of hydrologic activity is brought about. Discharge of
water from...
Disease transmission forecasts can help minimize
human and domestic animal health risks by indicating
where disease control and prevention efforts should be
focused. For disease systems in which weather-related
variables affect pathogen proliferation, dispersal, or transmission,
the potential for disease forecasting exists. We
present a seasonal forecast of St. Louis...
We used a dynamic hydrology model to simulate water table depth (WTD) and quantify the relationship
between Saint Louis encephalitis virus (SLEV) transmission and hydrologic conditions in Indian River
County, Florida, from 1986 through 1991, a period with an SLEV epidemic. Virus transmission followed
periods of modeled drought (specifically low...
We modeled surface wetness at high resolution, using a dynamic hydrology model, to predict flood and
swamp water mosquito abundances. Historical meteorologic data, as well as topographic, soil, and vegetation
data, were used to model surface wetness and identify potential fresh and swamp water breeding habitats
in two northern New...
Mosquitoes and mosquitoborne disease transmission
are sensitive to hydrologic variability. If local hydrologic
conditions can be monitored or modeled at the scales at
which these conditions affect the population dynamics of
vector mosquitoes and the diseases they transmit, a means
for monitoring or modeling mosquito populations and mosquitoborne
disease transmission...
An ensemble local hydrologic forecast derived from the seasonal forecasts of the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) is presented. Three-month seasonal forecasts were used to resample historical meteorological conditions and generate ensemble forcing datasets for a TOPMODEL-based hydrology model. Eleven retrospective forecasts were run at Florida and New...
Intraseasonal variability of boreal summer rainfall and winds in tropical West Africa and the east Atlantic is examined using daily Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation and the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis during 1998–2006. Intraseasonal precipitation variability is dominated by two significant spectral peaks at time scales near 15 and 50 days,...