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Selecting climate change scenarios using impact-relevant sensitivities Public Deposited

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https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/articles/3197xn97r

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  • Climate impact studies often require the selection of a small number of climate scenarios. Ideally, a subset would have simulations that both (1) appropriately represent the range of possible futures for the variable/s most important to the impact under investigation and (2) come from global climate models (GCMs) that provide plausible results for future climate in the region of interest. We demonstrate an approach to select a subset of GCMs that incorporates both concepts and provides insights into the range of climate impacts. To represent how an ecosystem process responds to projected future changes, we methodically sample, using a simple sensitivity analysis, how an ecosystem variable responds locally to projected regional temperature and precipitation changes. We illustrate our approach in the Pacific Northwest, focusing on (a) changes in streamflow magnitudes in critical seasons for water management and (b) changes in annual vegetation carbon.
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  • Vano, J. A., Kim, J. B., Rupp, D. E., & Mote, P. W. (2015). Selecting climate change scenarios using impact‐relevant sensitivities. Geophysical Research Letters, 42(13), 5516-5525. doi:10.1002/2015GL063208
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  • 42
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  • 13
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  • This material is based upon the work supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under awards EAR-1250087 and EAR-1039192, by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), grant NA10OAR4310218, and by the Department of the Interior Northwest Climate Science Center (NW CSC) through a cooperative agreement (G12AC20495) from the United States Geological Survey (USGS).
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  • description.provenance : Made available in DSpace on 2015-08-24T15:05:11Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 VanoJulie CEOASSelectingClimateChange.pdf: 1356953 bytes, checksum: 7411ff4f9173ee3466a1432047f89822 (MD5) VanoJulie CEOASSelectingClimateChangeSupportingInformation.pdf: 803726 bytes, checksum: 6cf6599335d45047ebdabf68c394eba3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-07-16
  • description.provenance : Approved for entry into archive by Patricia Black(patricia.black@oregonstate.edu) on 2015-08-24T15:05:11Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 VanoJulie CEOASSelectingClimateChange.pdf: 1356953 bytes, checksum: 7411ff4f9173ee3466a1432047f89822 (MD5) VanoJulie CEOASSelectingClimateChangeSupportingInformation.pdf: 803726 bytes, checksum: 6cf6599335d45047ebdabf68c394eba3 (MD5)
  • description.provenance : Submitted by Patricia Black (patricia.black@oregonstate.edu) on 2015-08-24T15:04:49Z No. of bitstreams: 2 VanoJulie CEOASSelectingClimateChange.pdf: 1356953 bytes, checksum: 7411ff4f9173ee3466a1432047f89822 (MD5) VanoJulie CEOASSelectingClimateChangeSupportingInformation.pdf: 803726 bytes, checksum: 6cf6599335d45047ebdabf68c394eba3 (MD5)

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