A sensitivity-based approach to evaluating future changes in Colorado River Discharge Public Deposited

http://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/articles/3t945w44j

This is an author's peer-reviewed final manuscript, as accepted by the publisher. The published article is copyrighted by Springer and can be found at:  http://link.springer.com/journal/10584.

Descriptions

Attribute NameValues
Creator
Abstract or Summary
  • Projections of a drier, warmer climate in the U.S. Southwest would complicate management of the Colorado River system – yet these projections, often based on coarse resolution global climate models, are quite uncertain. We present an approach to understanding future Colorado River discharge based on land surface characterizations that map the Colorado River basin’s hydrologic sensitivities (e.g., changes in streamflow magnitude) to annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation changes. The approach uses a process-based macroscale land surface model (LSM; in this case, the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model, although methods are applicable to any LSM) to develop sensitivity maps (equivalent to a simple empirical model), and uses these maps to evaluate long-term annual streamflow responses to future precipitation and temperature change. We show that global climate model projections combined with estimates of hydrologic sensitivities, estimated for different seasons and at different change increments, can provide a basis for approximating cumulative distribution functions of streamflow changes similar to more common, computationally intensive full-simulation approaches that force the hydrologic model with downscaled future climate scenarios. For purposes of assessing risk, we argue that the sensitivity-based approach produces viable first-order estimates that can be easily applied to newly released climate information to assess underlying drivers of change and bound, at least approximately, the range of future streamflow uncertainties for water resource planners.
Resource Type
DOI
Date Available
Date Issued
Citation
  • Vano, J. A., & Lettenmaier, D. P. (2014). A sensitivity-based approach to evaluating future changes in Colorado River discharge. Climatic Change, 122(4), 621-634. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-1023-x
Series
Keyword
Rights Statement
Funding Statement (additional comments about funding)
Publisher
Peer Reviewed
Language
Replaces

Relationships

In Administrative Set:
Last modified: 10/27/2017

Downloadable Content

Download PDF
Citations:

EndNote | Zotero | Mendeley

Items