Article
 

Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

公开 Deposited

可下载的内容

下载PDF文件
https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/articles/4t64gq028

Descriptions

Attribute NameValues
Creator
Abstract
  • In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.
  • This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by the author(s) and published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. on behalf of the American Geophysical Union. The published article can be found at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/%28ISSN%292328-4277/issues
  • Keywords: forecasting, global change, Earth-surface processes
Resource Type
DOI
Date Available
Date Issued
Citation
  • Pelletier, J. D., Brad Murray, A., Pierce, J. L., Bierman, P. R., Breshears, D. D., Crosby, B. T., ... & Yager, E. M. (2015). Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land‐use changes: A review of methods and research needs. Earth's Future, 3(7), 220-251. doi:10.1002/2014EF000290
Journal Title
Journal Volume
  • 3
Journal Issue/Number
  • 7
权利声明
Funding Statement (additional comments about funding)
  • We wish to thank the NSF Geomorphology and Land-Use Dynamics program and its manager Paul Cutler for supporting this effort intellectually and financially through award #1250358.
Publisher
Peer Reviewed
Language
Replaces

关联

Parents:

This work has no parents.

单件

缩略图 标题 上传日期 公开度 行动
file details RuggieroPeterCEOASForecastingResponeEarths.pdf 07/26/2017 公开
file details RuggieroPeterCEOASForecastingResponeEarthsSupportingInformation.pdf 07/26/2017 公开