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Climate Sensitivity Estimated From Temperature Reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum

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https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/articles/5999n5008

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Abstract
  • Assessing impacts of future anthropogenic carbon emissions is currently impeded by uncertainties in our knowledge of equilibrium climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling. Previous studies suggest 3 K as best estimate, 2–4.5 K as the 66% probability range, and non-zero probabilities for much higher values, the latter implying a small but significant chance of high-impact climate changes that would be difficult to avoid. Here, combining extensive sea and land surface temperature reconstructions from the Last Glacial Maximum with climate model simulations we estimate a lower median (2.3 K) and reduced uncertainty (1.7–2.6 K 66% probability). Assuming paleoclimatic constraints apply to the future as predicted by our model, these results imply lower probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought.
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  • Schmittner, A., Urban, N. M., Shakun, J. D., Mahowald, N. M., Clark, P. U., Bartlein, P. J., . . . Rosell-Melé, A. (2011). Climate sensitivity estimated from temperature reconstructions of the last glacial maximum. Science (New York, N.Y.), 334(6061), 1385-1388. doi: 10.1126/science.1203513
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  • 334
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  • 6061
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  • This work was supported by the Paleoclimate Program of the National Science Foundation through project PALEOVAR (06023950-ATM).
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