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| Abstract |
- Summer streamflows in the Pacific Northwest are
largely derived from melting snow and groundwater discharge.
As the climate warms, diminishing snowpack and
earlier snowmelt will cause reductions in summer streamflow.
Most regional-scale assessments of climate change impacts
on streamflow use downscaled temperature and precipitation
projections from general circulation models (GCMs)
coupled with large-scale hydrologic models. Here we develop
and apply an analytical hydrogeologic framework for
characterizing summer streamflow sensitivity to a change
in the timing and magnitude of recharge in a spatially explicit
fashion. In particular, we incorporate the role of deep
groundwater, which large-scale hydrologic models generally
fail to capture, into streamflow sensitivity assessments. We
validate our analytical streamflow sensitivities against two
empirical measures of sensitivity derived using historical observations
of temperature, precipitation, and streamflow from
217 watersheds. In general, empirically and analytically derived
streamflow sensitivity values correspond. Although the
selected watersheds cover a range of hydrologic regimes
(e.g., rain-dominated, mixture of rain and snow, and snow-dominated),
sensitivity validation was primarily driven by
the snow-dominated watersheds, which are subjected to a
wider range of change in recharge timing and magnitude as a
result of increased temperature. Overall, two patterns emerge
from this analysis: first, areas with high streamflow sensitivity
also have higher summer streamflows as compared to low-sensitivity
areas. Second, the level of sensitivity and spatial
extent of highly sensitive areas diminishes over time as the
summer progresses. Results of this analysis point to a robust,
practical, and scalable approach that can help assess risk at
the landscape scale, complement the downscaling approach,
be applied to any climate scenario of interest, and provide a
framework to assist land and water managers in adapting to
an uncertain and potentially challenging future.
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| Citation |
- Safeeq, M., Grant, G. E., Lewis, S. L., Kramer, M. G., & Staab, B. (2014). A hydrogeologic framework for characterizing summer streamflow sensitivity to climate warming in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18(9), 3693-3710. doi:10.5194/hess-18-3693-2014
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| Rights Statement |
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| Funding Statement (additional comments about funding) |
- They acknowledge funding
support from the Oregon Watershed Enhancement Board, the
Bureau of Land Management (Oregon) and the USDA Forest
Service Region 6 and Pacific Northwest Research Station.
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| Additional Information |
- description.provenance : Submitted by Erin Clark (erin.clark@oregonstate.edu) on 2014-11-14T16:50:26Z
No. of bitstreams: 2
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- description.provenance : Approved for entry into archive by Erin Clark(erin.clark@oregonstate.edu) on 2014-11-14T16:50:55Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2
license_rdf: 1370 bytes, checksum: cd1af5ab51bcc7a5280cf305303530e9 (MD5)
SafeeqMohammadCEOASHydrogeologicFrameworkCharacterizing.pdf: 9008522 bytes, checksum: 87914b79840aa1bcb35b8918610f28e9 (MD5)
- description.provenance : Made available in DSpace on 2014-11-14T16:50:55Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2
license_rdf: 1370 bytes, checksum: cd1af5ab51bcc7a5280cf305303530e9 (MD5)
SafeeqMohammadCEOASHydrogeologicFrameworkCharacterizing.pdf: 9008522 bytes, checksum: 87914b79840aa1bcb35b8918610f28e9 (MD5)
Previous issue date: 2014-09-24
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