Persistent Chaos of Measles Epidemics in the Prevaccination United States Caused by a Small Change in Seasonal Transmission Patterns

Dalziel, Benjamin D.; Bjørnstad, Ottar N.; van Panhuis, Willem G.; Burke, Donald S.; Metcalf, C. Jessica E.; Grenfell, Bryan T.

Citeable URL: https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/articles/cc08hh30n

To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by the author(s) and published by Public Library of Science for International Society for Computational Biology. The published article can be found at: http://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/

Data Availability Statement: All data files on disease incidence are available on Dryad at http://dx. doi.org/10.5061/dryad.r4q34.

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Attribute Name	Values
Creator	Dalziel, Benjamin D. Bjørnstad, Ottar N. van Panhuis, Willem G. Burke, Donald S. Metcalf, C. Jessica E. Grenfell, Bryan T.
Abstract	Epidemics of infectious diseases often occur in predictable limit cycles. Theory suggests these cycles can be disrupted by high amplitude seasonal fluctuations in transmission rates, resulting in deterministic chaos. However, persistent deterministic chaos has never been observed, in part because sufficiently large oscillations in transmission rates are uncommon. Where they do occur, the resulting deep epidemic troughs break the chain of transmission, leading to epidemic extinction, even in large cities. Here we demonstrate a new path to locally persistent chaotic epidemics via subtle shifts in seasonal patterns of transmission, rather than through high-amplitude fluctuations in transmission rates. We base our analysis on a comparison of measles incidence in 80 major cities in the prevaccination era United States and United Kingdom. Unlike the regular limit cycles seen in the UK, measles cycles in US cities consistently exhibit spontaneous shifts in epidemic periodicity resulting in chaotic patterns. We show that these patterns were driven by small systematic differences between countries in the duration of the summer period of low transmission. This example demonstrates empirically that small perturbations in disease transmission patterns can fundamentally alter the regularity and spatiotemporal coherence of epidemics.
Resource Type	Article
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004655
Date Available	2016-06-21T13:59:07+00:00
Date Issued	2016-02
Citation	Dalziel, B. D., Bjørnstad, O. N., van Panhuis, W. G., Burke, D. S., Metcalf, C. J. E., & Grenfell, B. T. (2016). Persistent Chaos of Measles Epidemics in the Prevaccination United States Caused by a Small Change in Seasonal Transmission Patterns. PLoS Computational Biology, 12(2), e1004655. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004655
Journal Title	PLoS Computational Biology
Journal Volume	12
Journal Issue/Number	2
Rights Statement	In Copyright
Funding Statement (additional comments about funding)	This work was funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (www.gatesfoundation.org/)(CJEM, BTG, ONB), and the RAPIDD program of the Science & Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security and the Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health (http://www.fic.nih.gov/about/staff/pages/epidemiology-population.aspx) (CJEM, BTG, ONB). WGVP and DSB would like to thank the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (Grant 49276, Evaluation of Candidate Vaccine Technologies Using Computational Models) and the US National Institute of General Medical Sciences (http://www.nigms.nih.gov/Pages/default.aspx)(Grant 5U54GM088491, Computational Models of Infectious Disease Threats) for their support.
Publisher	Public Library of Science
Peer Reviewed	Yes
Language	English [eng]
Replaces	http://hdl.handle.net/1957/59264
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