Article
 

Persistent Chaos of Measles Epidemics in the Prevaccination United States Caused by a Small Change in Seasonal Transmission Patterns

公开 Deposited

可下载的内容

下载PDF文件
https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/articles/cc08hh30n

Descriptions

Attribute NameValues
Creator
Abstract
  • Epidemics of infectious diseases often occur in predictable limit cycles. Theory suggests these cycles can be disrupted by high amplitude seasonal fluctuations in transmission rates, resulting in deterministic chaos. However, persistent deterministic chaos has never been observed, in part because sufficiently large oscillations in transmission rates are uncommon. Where they do occur, the resulting deep epidemic troughs break the chain of transmission, leading to epidemic extinction, even in large cities. Here we demonstrate a new path to locally persistent chaotic epidemics via subtle shifts in seasonal patterns of transmission, rather than through high-amplitude fluctuations in transmission rates. We base our analysis on a comparison of measles incidence in 80 major cities in the prevaccination era United States and United Kingdom. Unlike the regular limit cycles seen in the UK, measles cycles in US cities consistently exhibit spontaneous shifts in epidemic periodicity resulting in chaotic patterns. We show that these patterns were driven by small systematic differences between countries in the duration of the summer period of low transmission. This example demonstrates empirically that small perturbations in disease transmission patterns can fundamentally alter the regularity and spatiotemporal coherence of epidemics.
License
Resource Type
DOI
Date Available
Date Issued
Citation
  • Dalziel, B. D., Bjørnstad, O. N., van Panhuis, W. G., Burke, D. S., Metcalf, C. J. E., & Grenfell, B. T. (2016). Persistent Chaos of Measles Epidemics in the Prevaccination United States Caused by a Small Change in Seasonal Transmission Patterns. PLoS Computational Biology, 12(2), e1004655. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004655
Journal Title
Journal Volume
  • 12
Journal Issue/Number
  • 2
Academic Affiliation
权利声明
Related Items
  • All data files on disease incidence are available on Dryad at
Funding Statement (additional comments about funding)
Publisher
Peer Reviewed
Language
Replaces

关联

Parents:

This work has no parents.

单件

缩略图 标题 上传日期 公开度 行动
file details DalzielPersistantChaoMeasles.PDF 07/26/2017 公开
file details DalzielPersistantChaoMeaslesSupportingInfo.zip 07/26/2017 公开