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Process-Based Modeling to Assess the Effects of Recent Climatic Variation on Site Productivity and Forest Function across Western North America

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https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/articles/gq67js885

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  • A process-based forest growth model, 3-PG (Physiological Principles Predicting Growth), parameterized with values of soil properties constrained by satellite-derived estimates of maximum leaf area index (LAI[subscript max]), was run for Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) to contrast the extent to which site growth potential might vary across western North America between a cool, wet period (1950–1975) and a more recent, generally warmer and drier one (2000–2009). LAI[subscript max] represents a surrogate for overall site growth potential, as demonstrated from a strong correlation between the two variables, with the latter based on the culmination of mean annual increment estimates made at 3356 ground-based U.S. Forest Service survey plots across the states of Oregon and Washington. Results indicate that since 2000, predicted LAI[subscript max] has decreased more than 20% in portions of the Southwest USA and for much of the forested area in western Alberta. Similar percentage increases in LAI[subscript max] were predicted for parts of British Columbia, Idaho and Montana. The modeling analysis included an assessment of changes in seasonal constraints on gross primary production (GPP). A general reduction in limitations caused by spring frost occurred across the entire study area. This has led to a longer growing season, along with notable increases in summer evaporative demand and soil drought for much of the study area away from the maritime influence of the Pacific Ocean.
  • Keywords: Douglas-fir, FIA survey plots, Climate change, Leaf area index, 3-PG model, Productivity
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  • Waring RH, Coops NC, Mathys A, Hilker T, Latta G. (2014). Process-Based Modeling to Assess the Effects of Recent Climatic Variation on Site Productivity and Forest Function across Western North America. Forests, 5(3):518-534. doi:10.3390/f5030518
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  • 5
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  • 3
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  • This work was supported by NASA grant NNX11A029G from the program for Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting.
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