Experiments with Seasonal Forecasts of ocean conditions for the Northern region of the California Current upwelling system Public Deposited

http://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/articles/pr76f5044

To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by the author(s) and published by Nature Publishing Group. The published article can be found at:  http://www.nature.com/articles/srep27203

NOAA data is available from CDIAC ( http://cdiac.ornl.gov). Data from Newport is available upon request by emailing Bill Peterson ( bill.peterson@noaa.gov), and for the NH10 temperature moored time series, that is available upon request by emailing Mike Kosro ( kosro@coas.oregonstate.edu). Data from the OCNMS is available on their website  http://olympiccoast.noaa.gov/science/oceanography/oceanographic_moorings/oceanographic_moorings_data.html). This is PMEL contribution number 4395 and JISAO contribution number 2709.

Descriptions

Attribute NameValues
Creator
Abstract or Summary
  • Resource managers at the state, federal, and tribal levels make decisions on a weekly to quarterly basis, and fishers operate on a similar timeframe. To determine the potential of a support tool for these efforts, a seasonal forecast system is experimented with here. JISAO’s Seasonal Coastal Ocean Prediction of the Ecosystem (J-SCOPE) features dynamical downscaling of regional ocean conditions in Washington and Oregon waters using a combination of a high-resolution regional model with biogeochemistry and forecasts from NOAA’s Climate Forecast System (CFS). Model performance and predictability were examined for sea surface temperature (SST), bottom temperature, bottom oxygen, pH, and aragonite saturation state through model hindcasts, reforecast, and forecast comparisons with observations. Results indicate J-SCOPE forecasts have measurable skill on seasonal timescales. Experiments suggest that seasonal forecasting of ocean conditions important for fisheries is possible with the right combination of components. Those components include regional predictability on seasonal timescales of the physical environment from a large-scale model, a high-resolution regional model with biogeochemistry that simulates seasonal conditions in hindcasts, a relationship with local stakeholders, and a real-time observational network. Multiple efforts and approaches in different regions would advance knowledge to provide additional tools to fishers and other stakeholders.
Resource Type
DOI
Date Available
Date Issued
Citation
  • Siedlecki, S. A., Kaplan, I. C., Hermann, A. J., Nguyen, T. T., Bond, N. A., Newton, J. A., ... & Feely, R. A. (2016). Experiments with Seasonal Forecasts of ocean conditions for the Northern region of the California Current upwelling system. Scientific Reports, 6, 27203. doi:10.1038/srep27203
Series
Rights Statement
Funding Statement (additional comments about funding)
Publisher
Peer Reviewed
Language
Replaces
Additional Information
  • description.provenance : Made available in DSpace on 2016-07-01T18:04:29Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 3 license_rdf: 1370 bytes, checksum: cd1af5ab51bcc7a5280cf305303530e9 (MD5) SiedleckiExperimentswithSeasonalForecasts.pdf: 3393582 bytes, checksum: 3c02293975c0056e95679929b2f1c218 (MD5) SiedleckiExperimentswithSeasonalForecastsSupplement.pdf: 2583287 bytes, checksum: a028d0fb2037f50f7f237ded7ac6ad42 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-06-07
  • description.provenance : Approved for entry into archive by Patricia Black(patricia.black@oregonstate.edu) on 2016-07-01T18:04:29Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 3 license_rdf: 1370 bytes, checksum: cd1af5ab51bcc7a5280cf305303530e9 (MD5) SiedleckiExperimentswithSeasonalForecasts.pdf: 3393582 bytes, checksum: 3c02293975c0056e95679929b2f1c218 (MD5) SiedleckiExperimentswithSeasonalForecastsSupplement.pdf: 2583287 bytes, checksum: a028d0fb2037f50f7f237ded7ac6ad42 (MD5)
  • description.provenance : Submitted by Patricia Black (patricia.black@oregonstate.edu) on 2016-07-01T18:03:55Z No. of bitstreams: 3 license_rdf: 1370 bytes, checksum: cd1af5ab51bcc7a5280cf305303530e9 (MD5) SiedleckiExperimentswithSeasonalForecasts.pdf: 3393582 bytes, checksum: 3c02293975c0056e95679929b2f1c218 (MD5) SiedleckiExperimentswithSeasonalForecastsSupplement.pdf: 2583287 bytes, checksum: a028d0fb2037f50f7f237ded7ac6ad42 (MD5)

Relationships

Parents:

This work has no parents.

Last modified Default

Items