Exploring the impacts of climate and policy changes on coastal community resilience: Simulating alternative future scenarios

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  • Coupled models of coastal hazards, ecosystems, socioeconomics, and landscape management in conjunction with alternative scenario analysis provide tools that can allow decision-makers to explore effects of policy decisions under uncertain futures. Here, we describe the development and assessment of a set of model-based alternative future scenarios examining climate and population driven landscape dynamics for a coastal region in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. These scenarios incorporated coupled spatiotemporal models of climate and coastal hazards, population and development, and policy and assessed a variety of landscape metrics for each scenario. Coastal flooding and erosion were probabilistically simulated using 99 future 95-year climate scenarios. Five policy scenarios were iteratively co-developed by researchers and stakeholders in Tillamook County, Oregon. Results suggest that both climate change and management decisions have a significant impact across the landscape, and can potentially impact geographic regions at different magnitudes and timescales.
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  • 109
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  • This study was funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coastal and Ocean Climate Applications (COCA) program under NOAA grants NA12OAR4310109 and NA15OAR4310243 and NOAA's Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program (RISA), under NOAA grants NA10OAR4310218 and NA15OAR4310145.
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