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Outlook for Fishmeal and Fish Oil Demand: The Role of Aquaculture Public Deposited

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  • The rapid growth of aquaculture and concomitant growth in the use of compound aquafeeds have resulted in aquaculture using 35% of global fishmeal and 54% of global fish oil in 2000, up from just 10% and 16% respectively in 1988. Meanwhile, landings of reduction fish have hovered near 30 mmt, and fishmeal production has remained near 6 mmt for nearly two decades. Aquaculture has increased its share of use as the terrestrial livestock sector, which generally is more price-responsive than aquaculture for fishmeal in feed, has decreased its share of use from 82% in 1988 to 56% in 2000. Projections with IFPRI’s IMPACT model, which allows for endogenously determined fishmeal and oil demand, show rapid growth in aquaculture associated with higher prices for fishmeal and oil. Rising production of marine finfish and shrimp, with rigid requirements for fishmeal and oil in their diets, will eventually drive demand higher in the absence of technical change. Rising relative prices are likely to be associated with growth in the share of fishmeal consumption by aquaculture, as end-users with more flexible demand exit the supply-limited market. This in turn is likely to increase the overall price inelasticity of demand for fishmeal and oil. However, if price pressures induce innovations in substitutes for fishmeal and oil in compound aquafeeds, IMPACT scenarios show lower real prices for these feed inputs, releasing a potential constraint to aquaculture production growth and possibly easing pressure on reduction stocks.
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  • Wada, Nikolas, Christopher Delgado, Albert Tacon. 2002. Outlook for Fishmeal and Fish Oil Demand: The Role of Aquaculture. Peer Review: No. In: Proceedings of the Eleventh Biennial Conference of the International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade, August 19-22, 2002, Wellington, New Zealand: Fisheries in the Global Economy. Compiled by Ann L. Shriver. International Institute of Fisheries Economics & Trade, Corvallis, Oregon, USA, 2002. CD ROM.
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