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Fish to 2020: Supply and Demand in Changing Global Markets

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  • The structure of global supply and demand for fish has changed dramatically over the past few decades. Traditional marine fisheries increased and reached its peak in the 1990s, while aquaculture has expanded rapidly since the 1970s, making it one of the fastest growing sectors in all of agriculture. Fish has also become widely traded internationally. A large part of the rising trade, production, and consumption has taken place in the developing world. These developments highlight the need for and complexities of making projections for future trends in production and consumption. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and WorldFish Center have recently collaborated on a landmark study applying state-of-the-art-modeling techniques to analyze the outlook for global fish markets over the next 20 years. Model simulations suggest world fish demand will outpace supply growth, resulting in higher fish prices. (In contrast, other food commodity prices will decline in real terms). The share of fish supply that is globally traded will continue to rise; meanwhile growth in production and consumption will increasingly take place in developing countries. The implications of these changes are profound with respect to resource allocation to and within fisheries, as well as the design of strategies and options for improving outcomes for the poor and the environment.
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  • Rosegrant, Mark W., Mahfuzuddin Ahmed, Christopher Delgado, Nikolas Wada and Rowena Andrea Valmonte-Santos. 2004. Fish to 2020: Supply and Demand in Changing Global Markets. Peer Review: No. In: Proceedings of the Twelfth Biennial Conference of the International Institute of Fisheries Economics & Trade, July 20-30, 2004, Tokyo, Japan: What are Responsible Fisheries? Compiled by Ann L. Shriver. International Institute of Fisheries Economics & Trade, Corvallis, Oregon, USA, 2004. CD ROM. ISBN 0-9763432-0-7
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