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A Real Options Approach to Modeling Fishery Participation Public Deposited

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Suggested Bibliographic Reference: Challenging New Frontiers in the Global Seafood Sector: Proceedings of the Eighteenth Biennial Conference of the International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade, July 11-15, 2016. Compiled by Stefani J. Evers and Ann L. Shriver. International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade (IIFET), Corvallis, 2016.

Proceedings of the Eighteenth Biennial Conference of the International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade, held July 11-15, 2016 at Aberdeen Exhibition and Conference Center (AECC), Aberdeen, Scotland, UK.

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  • Dominant models of harvester behavior typically focus on where or when harvesters allocate their effort within a fishery, adjusting effort on the intensive margin in response to fishing conditions and management.  However, many harvesters participate in multiple fisheries during a year, and thus a major consequence of management change is modifying whether and how much harvesters participate, on the extensive margin.  Addressing participation requires a novel modeling framework that captures future opportunities in other fisheries, including expected harvest, harvest uncertainty, quota and bycatch limits, and open and closed seasons.  In this paper, we propose a tractable theoretical and empirical framework for fisheries participation based on real options models used in finance.  This approach is more appropriate than a fishing portfolio approach because the latter does not account for the irreversible cost of owning vessels and quota, which is necessary to participate in a fishery.  We lay out the model, and demonstrate its application in a situation motivated by fishing opportunities present in the US West Coast groundfish fishery: Groundfish harvesters a prevented from fishing by a rare by severely limiting bycatch species, leading to high variance in total incomes for participants, but a new, low-bycatch gear technology has been developed which reduces shutdown risk.  The model characterizes the conditions under which harvesters will adopt the new low-bycatch gear.
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  • 0976343290

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