Suggested Bibliographic Reference: Challenging New Frontiers in the Global Seafood Sector: Proceedings of the Eighteenth Biennial Conference of the International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade, July 11-15, 2016. Compiled by Stefani J. Evers and Ann L. Shriver. International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade (IIFET), Corvallis, 2016.
Proceedings of the Eighteenth Biennial Conference of the International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade, held July 11-15, 2016 at Aberdeen Exhibition and Conference Center (AECC), Aberdeen, Scotland, UK.
Future changes in Arctic marine ecosystems will depend as much on global climate change as on our ability to regulate and manage exploitation pressure at sustainable levels. There is a lack of integrated, cross-sectoral ecosystem-based analysis of the Arctic marine management. The analysis is on both the choices for implementing regulatory tools and how they will affect the many ecosystem-dependent values derived from them. The ability to maximize these values depends critically on the ways in which the dynamic bio-economic properties of the resources are impacted by the human behavior induced by the regulations (or lack thereof). In this paper it is speculated about likely changes in the future Arctic fisheries based on a scenario building approach. The dimensions are 1) Climate changes and the likely impacts in the Arctic, 2) the sectoral development of important marine sectors (fishing, shipping, mining etc.) and 3) Governance structure development. The development in each of these dimensions is uncertain and central in the analysis is risk and uncertainty. The results indicate that the future climate changes might involve relative large changes in the marine ecosystem and hence fish stock, but also that the economic outcome of fisheries depend critical upon the ability of the governance structure to adjust the regulatory regime to capture the values of the ecosystem services.