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The Duration of EU Seafood Imports from Developing Countries: The Impact of Trade Policies and Chinese Products

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  • In 2014, developing countries were responsible for 56.5% of total value of seafood imported by the EU; however, their import value only grew 56% relative to 1999. During the same period, China, gained over 300% growth in this market. The EU’s General System of Preferences (GSP) scheme provides duty-free or duty-reduction tariff treatments for certain products from developing countries. In December 2005, the EU decided to further grand the GSP-plus incentives to vulnerable developing countries, which may enter the EU market with an extension of duty-free access. The EU’s new GSP regime started to apply on 1 January 2014. However, China was removed from GSP benefits as from 1 January 2015. This paper explores the impact of the EU GSP scheme and Chinese products on other developing countries in the EU seafood market. In particular, we aim to identify the observed trade patterns in terms of trade duration. Estimation results from the survival function indicate that (1) the lower growth rate of seafood imports from developing countries may relate to the lower probability of those products remaining in the market, and (2) while products from the GSP-plus beneficiaries experienced high risk of leaving the market, the product lines competing with Chinese products are expected to have a longer duration. We further estimate the Cox model to assess the determinants of the hazard rate at which trade duration is terminated. Results indicate that a lower price of substitutes relative to Chinese products can reduce the hazard, with a factor of 17%.
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  • Aberdeen, Scotland, UK
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  • 0976343290



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