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The Role of Expectations in Modeling Fishing Fleet Capacity Changes Public Deposited

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  • The paper analyzes a situation in which the fishing fleet is subject to restrictive regulation regarding the harvest of its primal target species due to biological overfishing that in turn reveals a high level of overcapacity. The goal is to model fishermen’s expectations and likely responses to the government initiated transition to a sustainable fishery. The question the paper aims to answer is: to what degree anticipation of policy change may be delaying the fleet restructuring process. The investigated setting includes direct intervention in the form of a time‐limited buyback program and two scenarios regarding future regulations. In the first, the fishery continues under Individual Vessel Quotas (IVQs). In the second scenario, introduction of Individual Transferable Quotas (ITQs) is expected in the near future. Under a rationality assumption, the exit decision depends on the expected sum of discounted profits in comparison with the single buyback payment. The profits in turn depend on expectations regarding the form of the quota that may become a valuable asset in the future. The paper uses a restricted profit function approach. The advantage of the developed model is its flexibility with respect to the multispecies and multigear character of the fishing industry. An application is provided for the Polish trawler fleet targeting primarily cod.
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  • Hutniczak, Barbara and Niels Vestergaard. 2015. The Role of Expectations in Modeling Fishing Fleet Capacity Changes. In: Proceedings of the Eighth Biennial Forum of the North American Association of Fisheries Economists, May 20-22, 2015, Ketchikan, Alaska: Economic Sustainability, Fishing Communities and Working Waterfronts. Compiled by Ann L. Shriver and Melissa Errend. North American Association of Fisheries Economists, Corvallis, Oregon, USA, 2015.
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  • Alaska Sea Grant, North Pacific Fishery Management Council, North Pacific Research Board, Northern Economics, Pollock Conservation Cooperative Research Center, Rasmuson Foundation, University of Alaska Fairbanks, School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, University of Alaska Southeast, Ketchikan
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  • description.provenance : Submitted by Melissa Errend (melissa.errend@gmail.com) on 2015-10-30T17:26:37Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Hutniczak 82 NAAFE 2015.pdf: 4564388 bytes, checksum: f3fe32a3d1d91863048f3c88e32a4536 (MD5)
  • description.provenance : Approved for entry into archive by Susan Gilmont(susan.gilmont@orst.edu) on 2015-11-02T16:33:00Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Hutniczak 82 NAAFE 2015.pdf: 4564388 bytes, checksum: f3fe32a3d1d91863048f3c88e32a4536 (MD5)
  • description.provenance : Made available in DSpace on 2015-11-02T16:33:00Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Hutniczak 82 NAAFE 2015.pdf: 4564388 bytes, checksum: f3fe32a3d1d91863048f3c88e32a4536 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-05

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