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Exchange rates, exchange risk and U.S. codfish imports

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  • The effects of exchange rates and risk on U.S. codfish imports from Canada, China, Norway and Iceland are examined in the context of the Armington framework. The exchange rate volatility is measured by the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) method. The nonstationarities of time-series data are explicitly taken into account by employing the Johansen test, the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) method and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Significant long-run effects of exchange rate volatilities and competing suppliers’ currency uncertainties are supported by the data and cointegration tests. However short-run effects of volatilities cannot be verified by the relevant error correction models (ECM). The estimation results also show that the long-run impact of exchange rate on the import demand is generally larger than that of the relative price. The empirical results in general indicate the important impacts of exchange rates and risk on the U.S. codfish imports.
  • Keywords: Seafood Processing and International Trade, Fisheries Economics, Markets and Trade
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  • Zhang, Dengjun. 2010. Exchange Rates, Exchange Risk and U.S. Codfish Imports. 13 pages. In: Proceedings of the Fifteenth Biennial Conference of the International Institute of Fisheries Economics & Trade, July 13-16, 2010, Montpellier, France: Economics of Fish Resources and Aquatic Ecosystems: Balancing Uses, Balancing Costs. Compiled by Ann L. Shriver. International Institute of Fisheries Economics & Trade, Corvallis, Oregon, USA, 2010.
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  • US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Fisheries Division, Agence Française de Développement, Ministère de l’Enseignement Supérieur et de la Recherche, Ministère de L’Alimentation de L’Agriculture et de la Pêche, Ministère de l’Énergie, du Développement Durable et de la Mer, La Région Languedoc Rouslilon, Département Hérault, Montpellier Agglomèration, The Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Canada, and AquaFish Collaborative Research Support Program (CRSP).
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