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Retrospective Economic Analysis of Fraser River Sockeye Salmon Fishery Management

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  • Many Fraser River sockeye salmon stocks show large cycles in abundance from year to year, but the causes of these cycles are not clear. As a result, these stocks have historically been managed under the hypothesis of cyclic dominance, i.e., maintaining the cyclic behaviour of the stocks. Biological studies and changes in management have revealed that the potential yield of the off-peak parts of the cycle could be much higher than was previously thought. We analyzed past management performance in this fishery, examining how much more profitable the fishery could have been had managers and scientists known then what we know now. We used stock-recruitment data as the basis of the biological dynamics, and used prices, fishing costs and discounting to incorporate economics. We then simulated the fishery under a variety of fisheries management regimes. We found that the fishery could have been 40-200% more profitable than it was historically if relatively simple management rules had been implemented. However, we found that there would have been relatively little increase in profit if managers had know in advance the so-called recruitment anomalies, i.e., the deviation of actual recruitment from that predicted by the deterministic model. The results suggest that, if this fishery is to be managed to maximize long-term profit given conservation constraints, research would be better directed at discovering management parameters and finding ways to reach management goals than at predicting recruitment anomalies.
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  • Marsden, A. Dale, Steven J.D. Martell and U. Rashid Sumaila. 2006. Retrospective Economic Analysis of Fraser River Sockeye Salmon Fishery Management. In: Proceedings of the Thirteenth Biennial Conference of the International Institute of Fisheries Economics & Trade, July 11-14, 2006, Portsmouth, UK: Rebuilding Fisheries in an Uncertain Environment. Compiled by Ann L. Shriver. International Institute of Fisheries Economics & Trade, Corvallis, Oregon, USA, 2006. CD ROM. ISBN 0-9763432-3-1
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  • The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration Marine Fisheries Service, United States Department of Commerce (NOAA Fisheries); United Kingdom Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA); The United States Agency for International Development supported Aquaculture Collaborative Research and Support Program (ACRSP).
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