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Norwegian Salmonid Farming and Global Warming: Spatial Distribution and Value Adding

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  • The spatial distribution of Norwegian salmon farming depends on license allocation and physical conditions, with politicians defining the former. Currently, relocalization of these is not permitted. With an expected temperature increase in Norwegian waters, this study analyzes increased temperatures impact on the spatial distribution of production and employment. Four scenarios are investigated over a 30 year timespan: - No relocalization and stable temperature - No relocalization and increased temperature - Free relocalization and stable temperature - Free relocalization and increased temperature Temperature has a major effect on fish growth. The production model predicts annual salmon production per year and county, utilizing a simplified approach to model a complex relationship. Total production is based on linear market growth, serving as a restriction in the subsequent model. Productivity per county is determined in a temperature-driven model, and another model predicts the relocalization of licenses. Measurements of industrial statistics like value added and employment are important for policymakers. An input-output model captures the direct and indirect effects of aquaculture production in each county, comparing these to the base scenario. Preliminary findings indicate substantially differing effects on the spatial distribution of production and hence value adding and employment. In the baseline scenario, production growth is relatively equal among the northern, middle and southern parts of Norway. Increased temperature yield shifts production considerably north, both in case of stable and liberalized management.
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  • Heen, Knut and Øystein Hermansen. 2010. Norwegian Salmonid Farming and Global Warming: Spatial Distribution and Value Adding. In: Proceedings of the Fifteenth Biennial Conference of the International Institute of Fisheries Economics & Trade, July 13-16, 2010, Montpellier, France: Economics of Fish Resources and Aquatic Ecosystems: Balancing Uses, Balancing Costs. Compiled by Ann L. Shriver. International Institute of Fisheries Economics & Trade, Corvallis, Oregon, USA, 2010.
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  • US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Fisheries Division, Agence Française de Développement, Ministère de l’Enseignement Supérieur et de la Recherche, Ministère de L’Alimentation de L’Agriculture et de la Pêche, Ministère de l’Énergie, du Développement Durable et de la Mer, La Région Languedoc Rouslilon, Département Hérault, Montpellier Agglomèration, The Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Canada, and AquaFish Collaborative Research Support Program (CRSP).
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