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Optimal Management of the Baltic Sea Fishery Under Climate Change: An Ecological-Economic Age-Structured Multi-Species Model Analysis

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  • To achieve sustainable fisheries, ecosystem-based fisheries management yields increasing attention. However, so far mainly single-species models are used to develop management advice, not accounting for species interaction. In particular many traditional fisheries economic models have been criticized by biologists, especially if results were gained by rather simple biomass models. Therefore, age-structured ecological-economic models have the potential to foster communication between economists and stock assessment scientists. Biological assessment models, on the other hand, rarely explicitly take into account economic considerations. To overcome these shortcomings, we develop an age-structured, multi-species fishery model that incorporates dominant biological interactions like predation via multi-species models. Given the ultimate goal of providing most appropriate management advice for the operating fishery we adopt an economic objective function (present value of resource rents) and determine optimal management. In the Baltic Sea, the stock dynamics of the 3 most important fish species cod, herring and sprat are strongly interlinked by predation as well as competition. Accordingly, we develop a biological multi-species model that can be used to predict coupled stock dynamics under different management scenarios. We include environmentally-sensitive stock-recruitment functions in the model and simulate stock trajectories for a period of 30 years under an assumed climate change scenario. By further adding an age-structured ecologicaleconomic model, we derive the optimal multi-species management strategy in terms of net present value of resource rents. We evaluate the cost (as deviation from the optimum) of alternative management scenarios, e.g. when introducing side-conditions on minimum stock sizes or maximum year-to-year changes in the fishery. Specifically, we evaluate the economic and ecological sensibility of the present long-term management plan for Baltic cod in a multi-species framework.
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  • Voss, Rüdiger, Stefan Neuenfeldt, Jörn O. Schmidt and Martin F. Quaas. 2010. Optimal Management of the Baltic Sea Fishery Under Climate Change: An Ecological-Economic Age-Structured Multi-Species Model Analysis. In: Proceedings of the Fifteenth Biennial Conference of the International Institute of Fisheries Economics & Trade, July 13-16, 2010, Montpellier, France: Economics of Fish Resources and Aquatic Ecosystems: Balancing Uses, Balancing Costs. Compiled by Ann L. Shriver. International Institute of Fisheries Economics & Trade, Corvallis, Oregon, USA, 2010.
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  • US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Fisheries Division, Agence Française de Développement, Ministère de l’Enseignement Supérieur et de la Recherche, Ministère de L’Alimentation de L’Agriculture et de la Pêche, Ministère de l’Énergie, du Développement Durable et de la Mer, La Région Languedoc Rouslilon, Département Hérault, Montpellier Agglomèration, The Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Canada, and AquaFish Collaborative Research Support Program (CRSP).
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