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Exploring the Influence of Climate, Competition and Aquaculture on the Dynamics of Fraser River Sockeye Salmon and the Economics of their Fisheries

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  • Climate, competition, and disease are well-recognized drivers of population dynamics and can be intertwined by animal migrations with consequences for the ecosystems and economies that depend on them. Sockeye salmon from the Fraser River of British Columbia are one of the most ecologically, economically, and socially important salmon complexes in Western North America. Recent research suggests that competition with other salmon for food, changes in oceanographic conditions, and exposure to farmed salmon may in combination contribute to declines in Fraser sockeye productivity. This paper evaluates the potential ecological and economic consequences arising from these drivers. We use empirically based simulation modeling of sockeye salmon populations to explore how potential future changes in these drivers may affect sockeye spawning populations and associated fishing efforts and catches of different fisheries. We then incorporate economic components and estimate the profit losses across a range of plausible future climate, competition and aquaculture scenarios. These preliminary analyses reveal mixed results. But, the long term profit loss and decline in productivity are predominately driven by pink salmon competition, which can be magnified by exposure to open net-pen aquaculture and compensated by climate change. Importantly these analyses do not consider single potential drivers of sockeye dynamics in isolation but instead highlight how interactions among these hypothesized drivers may influence the coastal economies and ecosystems that depend upon Fraser sockeye. These analyses provide an important framework for informing policy and management as improved information emerges on the key driver of Fraser River sockeye salmon dynamics.
  • Keywords: Fisheries Economics, Markets: Related Markets Policy, Markets and Trade
  • Keywords: Fisheries Economics, Markets: Related Markets Policy, Markets and Trade
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  • Liu, Yajie and B. Conners. 2014. Exploring the Influence of Climate, Competition and Aquaculture on the Dynamics of Fraser River Sockeye Salmon and the Economics of their Fisheries.In: Towards ecosystem based management of fisheries: what role can economics play?: Proceedings of the Seventeenth Biennial Conference of the International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade, July 7-11, 2014, Brisbane, Australia. Complied by Ann L. Shriver & Melissa Errend. Corvallis, OR: International Institute of Fisheries.
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  • Fisheries Research & Development Corporation, World Wildlife Fund, MG Kailis Group, AquaFish Innovation Lab, NOAA Fisheries, The European Association of Fisheries Economists, Japan International Fisheries Research Society, United Nations University, NORAD
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