Future predictions of environmental conditions in Puget Sound exhibit an increased frequency and temporal extent of paralytic shellfish toxin closures. These predictions, generated using experimentally-derived growth responses of the common toxin-producing Alexandrium together with simulations of climate and local hydrology, depict a scenario in which the number of days favorable to bloom development is increased by 30 by the year 2050. We quantify the lost consumer surplus that would result from this reduced recreational opportunity, as impacted by future climate change. Our economic model is estimated using a recent contingent behavior survey of recreational shellfish harvesters in Puget Sound. Specifically, we estimate an incomplete count model demand system for recreational shellfish harvest trips along with the demand for close substitute trips.