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A Risk Programming Model for Shrimp Farming in Honduras

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Abstract
  • A linear programming (LP) profit-maximization model and a Target MOTAD risk programming model were developed to identify optimal management strategies and associated risk levels for the aquaculture of penaeid shrimp in Honduras. Data for this study were provided by three cooperating shrimp farms and included complete production records of 1,004 ponds during the period 1997-99. Production records were analyzed to characterize pond productivity on a month-to-month basis. Subsequently, an LP model was developed which was used to formulate a profit-maximizing annual plan of activities. For each month of the year, the model assumed that the farm manager had the option of selecting among 18 production activities characterized by varying stocking densities, lengths of grow-out periods, and water exchange regimes. The basic model was adapted to three different farm-size scenarios. Results of the LP model indicated that farm income is maximized by selecting intermediate densities, long grow-out cycles, and low water-exchange rates. Additionally, ponds should only be stocked in specific months of the year. Next, Target MOTAD matrices were developed for each farm-size scenario to quantify the levels of risk associated with the profit-maximizing solutions and identify alternative production plans. However, resolution of the Target MOTAD models indicated low risk levels associated with the LP solutions and an unnecessary reduction of profit if risk levels were to be further depressed. It then appears that the management strategies selected by the LP models enable farm managers to achieve the two-fold objective of maximization of farm profit coupled with low risk levels.
  • Keywords: economic optimization, risk, Target MOTAD, shrimp farming.
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  • Valderrama, Diego and Engle, Carol R. A Risk Programming Model for Shrimp Farming in Honduras. In: Microbehavior and Macroresults:Proceedings of the Tenth Biennial Conference of the International Institute ofFisheries Economics and Trade, July 10-14, 2000, Corvallis, Oregon, USA.Compiled by Richard S. Johnston and Ann L. Shriver. InternationalInstitute of Fisheries Economics and Trade (IIFET), Corvallis, 2001.
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  • Corvallis, Oregon, USA
Proceedings Editors
  • Johnston, Richard S.
  • Shriver, Ann L.
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  • International Institute of Fisheries Economics and TradeU.S. National Marine Fisheries ServiceMG Kailis Group
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