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State Dependence in Modeling the Spatial Behavior of Renewable Resource Users

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  • In marine resource management, spatial policy instruments, including Marine Protected Areas, are becoming increasingly important. The economic motivation for spatially explicit policy is that renewable resources generate, in addition to the conventionally recognized incentives to over-harvest in the face of insecure property rights, spatial externalities that distort the spatial distribution of effort away from the social optimum. Accurate predictions about responses to and the efficacy of spatial policies requires understanding spatial behavior of renewable resource users. A heterogeneous population of harvesters and the possibility that current location choices depend on past choices, i.e. state dependence, significantly confound the prediction problem. We use a rich data set of commercial sea urchin logbooks to estimate a discrete choice model of fishing location choice with state dependence. The model predicts spatial choices as a function of economic variables, particularly expected rents, and includes a state dependent formulation that explicitly incorporates each decision maker’s past experience. We discuss the results and offer further thoughts about the implication of econometric models of individual spatial choice for policy modeling.
  • Keywords: Fisheries Economics, state dependence, Theoretical and Empirical Bio-Economic Modelling, discrete choice fishing, Marine Protected Areas
  • Keywords: Fisheries Economics, state dependence, Theoretical and Empirical Bio-Economic Modelling, discrete choice fishing, Marine Protected Areas
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  • Smith, Martin D., James E. Wilen. 2002. State Dependence in Modeling the Spatial Behavior of Renewable Resource Users. Peer Review: No. In: Proceedings of the Eleventh Biennial Conference of the International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade, August 19-22, 2002, Wellington, New Zealand: Fisheries in the Global Economy. Compiled by Ann L. Shriver. International Institute of Fisheries Economics & Trade, Corvallis, Oregon, USA, 2002. CD ROM.
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