Prospects for Trade in Seafood Products on the Pacific Rim Public Deposited

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  • Both the physical volume and economic value of trade in seafood products among countries on the Pacific Rim have grown steadily in recent years. Concurrently, the distribution of production and the composition of products have changed. Regional economic accounts such as IMPLAN do not provide bilateral information on trade, and seafood data in the Global Trade Analysis Project are much too aggregated to be useful for analyzing fisheries economics and trade. We present a new methodology for estimating bilateral trade flows for specific seafood products from more aggregated data. Estimates of recent bilateral trade flows among the U.S., Canada, China, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Russia, and Viet Nam will be presented. These estimates are based on Kuroda's procedure. It computes a matrix that minimizes a sum of squared residuals from bilateral trade data subject to the constraints which a consistent trade matrix must satisfy. Aggregate bilateral trade data from the U.N. are used with more detailed national sources and augmented with gross trade data from FAO for specific seafood products. Results from model simulations will also be presented. For these, bilateral trade flow estimates for each country calibrate a seafood trade component of a global dynamic computable general equilibrium model. That model has been used in past work to simulate trade, energy use, CO2 emissions, GDP, and other variables in scenarios that specify assumptions for future economic and population growth. This analysis will extend past work to include trade in food commodities, and seafood products in particular.
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  • Dalton, Michael and Monica Galligan. 2008. Prospects for Trade in Seafood Products on the Pacific Rim. In: Proceedings of the Fourteenth Biennial Conference of the International Institute of Fisheries Economics & Trade, July 22-25, 2008, Nha Trang, Vietnam: Achieving a Sustainable Future: Managing Aquaculture, Fishing, Trade and Development. Compiled by Ann L. Shriver. International Institute of Fisheries Economics & Trade, Corvallis, Oregon, USA, 2008.
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