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A Simulation Method for Predicting Future Population Dynamics with Uncertainty

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  • Unfortunately, most of the stocks are damaged by natural disasters or human activities and rebuilding the stock are urgent requirements. Until now, in the stock management, some policies are commonly believed to valid but have not been confirmed. A simulation model of the population dynamics incorporating uncertainty has been already made by the authors. The typical believes of the stock management, “Ban rebuild stocks”, “Large mesh rebuild stocks” were confirmed by the simulation model. Six stocks were randomly chosen mainly from the data of ICES for applying this simulation model. For applying the management policy of 1 year ban, 5 to 6 stocks had not significant effect compare with no regulation after around 5 years of the opening of the fishery. For 3 of 6 stocks, the effect of the enlarged the mesh size was not detected. In conclusion, the widely believed policies were valid for only a part of stocks. Thus the effects of the management policies should be confirmed before conducting and applying to stocks.
  • KEYWORDS: Fishing Regulations, Ban, Population Dynamics Model, Stochastic Model
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  • Kimoto, Ai and Takashi Matsuishi. 2006. A Simulation Method for Predicting Future Population Dynamics with Uncertainty. In: Proceedings of the Thirteenth Biennial Conference of the International Institute of Fisheries Economics & Trade, July 11-14, 2006, Portsmouth, UK: Rebuilding Fisheries in an Uncertain Environment. Compiled by Ann L. Shriver. International Institute of Fisheries Economics & Trade, Corvallis, Oregon, USA, 2006. CD ROM. ISBN 0-9763432-3-1
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  • The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration Marine Fisheries Service, United States Department of Commerce (NOAA Fisheries); United Kingdom Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA); The United States Agency for International Development supported Aquaculture Collaborative Research and Support Program (ACRSP).
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