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Estimating Future Fish Demand Public Deposited

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Proceedings of the Eighteenth Biennial Conference of the International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade, held July 11-15, 2016 at Aberdeen Exhibition and Conference Center (AECC), Aberdeen, Scotland, UK.

Suggested Bibliographic Reference: Challenging New Frontiers in the Global Seafood Sector: Proceedings of the Eighteenth Biennial Conference of the International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade, July 11-15, 2016. Compiled by Stefani J. Evers and Ann L. Shriver. International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade (IIFET), Corvallis, 2016.

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  • There are perennial efforts in forecasting future fish supply and demand (e.g. the IFPRI Fish to 2020 model, the OECD-FAO Fish Model and the WB-IFPRI-FAO Fish to 2030 model). A panel model is developed to estimate a country's fish demand in the future. Instead of using a country's' own historical fish consumption trend to predict its future fish demand or borrowing elasticity parameters from the literature to do so, the panel model examines nearly 200 countries' fish consumption patterns altogether so that the projection of a country's future fish demand would be based not only on its own historical fish consumption pattern but also on those of other countries. The model is used to project future demands for 6 major fish species groups in nearly 200 countries, over 40 country groups and the entire world. The results are used to measure fish supply-demand gaps and based on which assess the potential of aquaculture growth at the national, regional and global levels. The model provides information and insights that are complement to and can potentially enhance the understanding of the forecasting results of general equilibrium forecasting models such as the OECD-FAO Fish Model or WB-IFPRI-FAO Fish to 2030 model. Elasticity parameters estimated from the model could be used to improve the consistency of such general equilibrium models which usually use elasticity parameters compiled from a variety of literature. As a side product, the model can be used to derive a "fish-loving" index to measure countries' preference over fish consumption.
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  • 0976343290

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