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Effectiveness of UNAIDS targets and HIV vaccination across 127 countries: simulation data

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  • The HIV pandemic continues to impose enormous morbidity, mortality and economic burdens across the globe. Simultaneously, innovations in antiretroviral therapy, diagnostic approaches and vaccine development are providing novel tools for treatment-as-prevention and prophylaxis. We developed a mathematical model to evaluate the added benefit of an HIV vaccine in the context of goals to increase rates of diagnosis, treatment, and viral suppression in 127 countries. Under status quo interventions, we predict a median of 49 million [1st and 3rd quartiles 44M, 58M] incident cases globally from 2015 to 2035. Achieving the UNAIDS 95–95–95 target was estimated to avert 25 million [20M, 33M] of these new infections, and an additional 6.3 million [4.8M, 8.7M] reduction was projected with the 2020 introduction of a 50%-efficacy vaccine gradually scaled up to 70% coverage. This added benefit of prevention through vaccination motivates imminent and ongoing clinical trials of viable candidates to realize the goal of HIV control.
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  • Jan Medlock; Abhishek Pandey; Alyssa S. Parpia; Amber Tang; Laura A. Skrip; Alison P. Galvani (2017): Effectiveness of UNAIDS targets and HIV vaccination across 127 countries: simulation data. Oregon State University. Dataset. https://doi.org/10.5072/FK20005Q3C
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  • J.M. was supported by National Institutes of Health U01 GM070694. A.P. was supported by a Brown CoxePostdoctoral Fellowship in the Medical Sciences. A.S.P. and A.P.G. were supported by National Institutes of Health U01 GM15627 and National Institutes of Health U01 GM087719. A.T. was supported by a Yale College Dean’s Research Fellowship. L.A.S. was supported by National Institutes of Health T32 AI007404.5
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  • Code for this project can be found at: https://github.com/janmedlock/HIV-95-vaccine
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