The development of a rail transport model and its use for the prediction of rail shipping costs for forest products in Oregon Public Deposited

http://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/defaults/3j333730m

Graduation date: 1991

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  • Transportation costs compose fifty to sixty percent of the total operating cost in the forest products industry. This paper develops a framework for incorporating rail transportation into a statewide multi-modal transportation planning model. It will allow for the analysis of various transportation scenarios that can possibly increase the efficiency of the forest products industry by reducing transportation costs. This paper has two objectives. First, to develop a rail transport model (RTM) that is capable of predicting shipping cost for forest products within Oregon as a function of route alignment, grade, and volume shipped. Second, to construct a model of the Oregon rail network. The nodes in the network were created at rail intersections, major cities, and towns with wood processing facilities. The Rail Transport Model was constructed by simulating train performance over the 47 rail routes in the state with varying quantities of lumber, plywood, and wood chips. The simulation results were then analyzed using simple linear regression to produce an equation for each route that predicts transportation cost for the quantity of wood products shipped. The coefficient of determination (R for the individual products varies from 0.50 to 0.99. The average coefficient of determination for the regression equations over all links in the rail network for lumber, plywood, and chips is 0.736, 0.828, and 0.930 respectively. The average coefficient of determination for the combination of forest products is lower at 0.445. An example of the use of transport cost equations is developed to find the breakeven volume between truck and rail transport for the route between Eugene and Coos Bay.
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