Other Scholarly Content
 

SchmittnerAndreasCEOASClimateSensitivityEstimated(SupportingOnlineMaterial).pdf

Public Deposited

Downloadable Content

Download PDF
https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/defaults/bc386k70r

Descriptions

Attribute NameValues
Creator
Abstract
  • Assessing impacts of future anthropogenic carbon emissions is currently impeded by uncertainties in our knowledge of equilibrium climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling. Previous studies suggest 3 K as best estimate, 2–4.5 K as the 66% probability range, and non-zero probabilities for much higher values, the latter implying a small but significant chance of high-impact climate changes that would be difficult to avoid. Here, combining extensive sea and land surface temperature reconstructions from the Last Glacial Maximum with climate model simulations we estimate a lower median (2.3 K) and reduced uncertainty (1.7–2.6 K 66% probability). Assuming paleoclimatic constraints apply to the future as predicted by our model, these results imply lower probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought.
Rights Statement